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There have been reports of rising Covid-19 infection rates in rural areas and even “surges,” such as here and here.

Many of these reports fail to note the most important statistic of all with respect to rural areas --- that, even with the recent increases and surges, rural Covid death rates remain below the national average. There are 703 counties in the United States that are completely rural (based on 2010 Census Bureau data), with no urban population. As of last Friday (October 24), the Covid death rate in these counties was 0.500 per 100,000 population. This is about 30% below the national rate of 0.676 per 100,000 (Figure 1 and 2). This analysis is described in “Perspective: US Covid-19 Deaths and Urban Population Density.”

All of the other counties in the nation have areas defined by the Census Bureau as urban, ranging from little under one percent to 100 percent.

Urban density is important. Covid infections and deaths are associated with higher urban densities. This is not because population density is a problem in itself. It is rather that in high urban densities it is more difficulty to avoid higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. These areas are often characterized by worrying overcrowding from insufficiently ventilated enclosed spaces, such as elevators, transit, offices and public buildings. Social distancing alone is not enough. According to The New York Times: Small, crowded, enclosed spaces are petri dishes for the coronavirus. An additional problem in higher density residential areas is overcrowded apartments, often necessary because lower income households often cannot afford detached houses with yards in which kids can play. There is an important poverty connection.

The newest data continues to show that Covid fatality rates are much higher in counties with the highest urban densities. Counties with over 10,000 persons per square mile have from just under four to over six times the rural county death rate. The rural counties account for 28% fewer deaths proportionally than their population.

Counties with urban densities of less than 5,000 persons per square mile have a smaller proportion of Covid deaths than their population share. Above 5,000 persons per square mile, Covid deaths are proportionately higher than population shares (Figure 3).

Similar relationships are evident elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom and Japan.

At the same time, however, the higher density counties have made substantial progress in controlling COVID infections and deaths. This is very good news. At least in part, this has been made possible by lockdown strategies that have led to huge decreases in transit ridership, high rise downtowns with largely empty offices and limits on elevator occupancy. The real question will be how long it will take for to return to normal, especially in the densest areas, which have been the hardest by lifestyle interruptions (see: Escape from New York).

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

COVID-19 presents great challenges to Northwest Arkansas (NWA) as it does to every community, but the region is in strong standing to weather this global pandemic.

Ensuring it does so requires leveraging – and enhancing – the region’s economic, social and demographic strengths while addressing its weaknesses.

To generate such an economic recovery strategy, Heartland Forward (HF) has undertaken an extensive and detailed analysis of the NWA region’s strengths, challenges and opportunities. Our team has arrayed and assessed comprehensive data on its economy and industries, its small businesses and startup ecosystem, talent base, changing demographic composition and quality of place that stems from its arts, culture and recreation efforts and initiatives to develop a robust strategy for post-COVID-19 recovery.

We supplemented these details with interviews and focus groups with real people living in NWA and representing each of these core sectors and communities to provide in-depth background into what is happening on the ground in NWA.

Before the crisis hit, our assessment indicates that the region was performing well . . . excelling in population growth, job and wage growth and other vital metrics.

NWA ranked:

• fourth in population growth of the more than 100 U.S. metro areas with more than 500,000 people since 1990,
• third in job growth, and
• second in annual average pay gains among medium-size metropolitan areas (i.e., populations of 500,000 to 999,999) between 2013 and 2018.

Read the rest of this piece at Heartland Forward.

Download the full report.

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by guest Kyle Harper, a professor of classics at the University of Oklahoma. Their discussion looks to the past, particularly the fall of Rome to help understand the problems of today. Kyle’s book, The Fall of Rome takes a look at infectious disease as part of the destruction of Rome.

Second century Romans lived in an urban society with regular intercontinental exchange that utilized the Indian Ocean, Silk Roads, and the Sahara. There’s also a randomness to evolutionary events that combine with the risk factors of globalization that create viruses that can spread rapidly across humans. While density can be a factor in the spreading of infectious disease, given the interconnectedness of the global economy, density makes less of a difference today than it may have in the past. Kyle stresses that both density and connectivity matter. To the disease, he explains, we’re just a host, anything we do that changes their evolutionary prospects affects them. Every parasite has to combat healthy immune systems and travel from host to host. Respiratory pathogens take advantage of the fact that we live in such a connected way.

From studying medieval and Roman problems, there are certainly lessons to take away for the modern pandemic and political age. Enlightenment science and the rise of germ theory and public health are part of lifting us from the oppression of infectious disease. We don’t learn from their handling of the disease, because they didn’t have the knowledge, science, or infrastructure to respond well. However, it can help us to be aware of threats and the biological realities of our universe. Historically, the COVID was bound to happen, will happen again, and may be much worse. Kyle stresses that one take away should be learning from this pandemic and becoming more prepared for another infectious disease outbreak in the future. It’s not just science that plays a role in pandemic response, it’s also social and behavioral programs and leadership that impacts the outcomes.

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Related:

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.

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Robert Manduca, who made an extremely detailed map of job locations in the US back in 2014, recently published a paper with estimates for central business district employment for US metropolitan and micropolitan areas.

Manduca utilizes an algorithm to delineate CBDs as areas of contiguous job density. This creates a standardized calculation of downtowns that allows comparisons across regions. This is very useful because there is no standardized definition of downtowns.

You can download a spreadsheet with summary information about every MSA. In some cases, the largest employment area is suburban, so you’ll see the CBD classified as “suburb” in this case. (The spreadsheet is of the largest employment center in each metro).

Read the rest at Heartland Intelligence.

The Figures below provide an update through October 5, 2020 to the relationship between county urban densities and COVID-19 death rates. The data continues to show a strong association between higher urban densities and death rates. The analysis approach and method are described in “Perspective: US Covid-19 Deaths and Urban Population Density.” See: Figure 1: “COVID-19 Death Rates by County Urban Density Category” and Figure 2: “Deaths Proportionate to Population” and Figure 3: “COVID-19 Death Rates by Urban Density.”



 
Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.
Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.