The latest death rates from COVID-19 are displayed by county urban density in Figure 1. Death rates remain at or below the national average per 1,000 residents in county categories with urban densities of 5,000 per square mile or below (Figures 1 and 2). More than 85% of the nation’s residents live in these areas, which have rural or low to medium density suburban areas. All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of Covid-19 deaths.
Urban density is important. Covid infections and deaths are associated with higher urban densities. This is not because population density is a problem in itself. It is rather that in high urban densities it is more difficulty to avoid higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. These areas are often characterized by worrying overcrowding from insufficiently ventilated enclosed spaces, such as elevators, transit, offices and public buildings (see: The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City by MIT economist Jeffery E. Harris). Social distancing alone is not enough. According to The New York Times: Small, crowded, enclosed spaces are petri dishes for the coronavirus. An additional problem in higher density residential areas is overcrowded apartments, often necessary because lower income households often cannot afford detached houses with yards in which kids can play. There is an important poverty connection.
Similar relationships are evident elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom and Japan.
On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by guest Kevin Shuvalov. Kevin served as Regional Political Director for the Republican National Committee, where he worked with state parties and campaigns in his region to grow Republican majorities in the Senate, House, and Governorships. In this role, he helped win Iowa’s electoral votes for President Bush as well as multiple other nationally prominent races, and helped create the successful “72 Hour” turnout program.
Their conversation begins with Joel asking Kevin if he was surprised with the turnout of the election and how the media portrayed the race to be one side or the other. Kevin responded with his concerns and what losing seats could have meant for Texas. Marshall followed the question up with how tech played a role and specifically how text message campaigns played a huge role in the election process. Not just the one-way text message route, but the back and forth communication with voters.
Joel continues and brings up a great point, “What astounds me is that Trump actually did better among young people and better among Hispanics and better, particularly among African American males than anyone expected. And that was particularly marked in Florida, and where you are in Texas, what happened and what does that mean?” Kevin responds and breaks down the Hispanic Latinos in Texas and how their wealth affects their decisions. Kevin also states that nothing is set in stone when it comes to the electorate.
As the episode ends, they speak about the control of communication by people who are overwhelmingly on the opposite side of the republican party and what it can manifest in the upcoming years.
It’s been a long time since the Democrats were considered “the party of the people” and the GOP the party of the fat cats. This year Joe Biden and even more so his running mate, Kamala Harris, are raising record sums from the corporate elite, notably the tech giants and their Wall Street allies. These wealthy donors dominate the party, own much of the media, and can manipulate the social-media platforms where a growing proportion of Americans get their news.
Meanwhile, the Republicans find themselves largely castigated in the press and overwhelmed by a torrent of oligarchic wealth at the Senate and local levels. This wealthy oligarchy is not just liberal; many members also support a thorough remaking of our country. Some, like former Twitter CEO Dick Costolo, are so committed to progressivism that, as he said recently, those who don’t get with the program should “face a firing squad.” Currently led by CEO Jack Dorsey, Twitter has gone so far as to block The New York Post’s account after it reported on the unsavory foreign business dealings of Biden’s son Hunter.
If these Democrats win both houses of Congress as well as the White House, things could get far worse for the already beleaguered middle class, which has been rocked by the pandemic, with an estimated 100,000 small firms going out of business. Particularly hard-hit by the recent urban unrest are inner city and minority businesses.
On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by guest Morley Winograd. Morley is a Senior Fellow at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School’s Center on Communication Leadership and Policy, author, and fellow at democratic think tank NDN. Morley also served as the chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party, and Senior Policy Advisor to Vice President Al Gore.
Their conversation begins with Joel asking Morley what battles democratic leadership may face should Joe Biden win the 2020 election. Morley quips that should democrats win the upcoming election, they will go into the White House with a very broad coalition, and thus spend a lot of time fighting amongst themselves. Michigan has had an interesting and diverse electorate over the years, and Morley spends some time explaining the layout, and how President Trump took a foothold in some regions.
What we’re witnessing with this election, Marshall explains, is the handover to the next generation of leaders in our house and senate. He asks Morley what that change will look like. Morley stresses that millennials are concerned that nothing in government is working anymore. They’re distrustful of markets and companies, and don’t look to the federal government, but rather you’ll find them working on local change. They’re the heart of grassroots movements across the country, and in this election, no one will be able to say they don’t vote as they are lining up in droves to cast their ballots. Once the votes are cast, should Joe Biden win, Marshall asks Morley what happens to the far-right wing of the Republican Party. Morley believes that the uglier elements of Trumpism will go back into the shadows, but it will not go away.
As the episode ends, they discuss the upcoming generation, Gen Z, or as Morley calls them, plurals, and why he thinks they are the great hope for America.
On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky interview John Russo, co-author of Steel Town USA and a visiting scholar at Georgetown University. John has spent most of his academic career at Youngstown State University in Ohio, and he has spent much time cataloguing the plight of the middle class and working class in the US.
As the conversation begins, John talks about the political situation in Ohio. While Donald Trump polled well in Ohio in 2016, with the 2020 presidential election right around the corner, John notes that Trump is now in trouble in Ohio. He explains from his observations in Youngstown how this change occurred, specifically citing the development of disillusionment with Trump. John also comments on demographics in Ohio, an article he wrote on Trump’s prospects in the state, Operation Grant, schism within the Republican party, and party polarization.
Next, focus shifts to issues surrounding the election itself. John does not offer a concrete guess as to who will win, but comments that the election is not so much about Trump and Biden as it is about the American people and their future. The election marks a significant generational shift as a new wave of young voters steps up, and John explains how this generation differs from generations that preceded it. He shares about potential conflict in the Democratic party, the idea of a “political parabola,” and realities of fear among voters.
Finally, the conversation turns to thoughts on the future, focusing first on the top three policy initiatives of the prospective Biden administration before turning to the future of capitalism, which John imagines will look more like the system established in China. As the episode moves toward a close, Joel, Marshall, and John talk about issues in the technology sphere, the last chance for the democratic party, labor reform, and more!
Infinite Suburbia is the culmination of the MIT Norman B. Leventhal Center for Advanced Urbanism's yearlong study of the future of suburban development. Find out more.
Books
Authored by Aaron Renn, The Urban State of Mind: Meditations on the City is the first Urbanophile e-book, featuring provocative essays on the key issues facing our cities, including innovation, talent attraction and brain drain, global soft power, sustainability, economic development, and localism.
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