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Feudal Future Podcast — The End of Innovation: Exposing California

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Tracy Hernandez. Tracy Hernandez is the Founding Chief Executive Officer of the Los Angeles County Business Federation (BizFed), a nonprofit, massive grassroots alliance of 180 top business networks that counts among its more than 400,000 business members a diverse demographic, industry sector, and geographic array of small and large employers of over 3.5 million people in Southern California. (BizFed 2020)

[6:00] Marshall shares an innovation graph of the past 5 years for multiple states. California has been at the bottom of innovation growth. Marshall comments that our innovators are leaving our state by storm.

[12:00] Dee Dee Myers and GoBiz. Joel shares his thoughts about Newsom and the implications of appointing the wrong people with power.

[19:00] Prop 19. App Based Drivers in California. Tracy shares how the state could have crippled thousands of contractors with the pass of Prop 19.

[32:00] Restaurant Owners and Shutdowns. Tracy and Joel defend small business owners that are in near bankruptcy due to shutdowns.

The episode ends with a question from Tracy. “What will the tipping point be for California business owners?”

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

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More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

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Related:

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.

Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.

Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Learn about Tracy Hernandez.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.

Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Leran about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

Big City Talent Markets Were Getting Hit Pre-Pandemic

One impact of the coronavirus has been to accelerate some trends that were already present in the marketplace beforehand. One of these has been the accelerating flow of people into new talent magnet communities and the relative stagnation of some of the larger, established coastal cities.

This is evident in the new Talent Attraction Scorecard 2020 from EMSI, which largely draws on data up through 2019. They find states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona having many of the most robust talent attraction markets as ranked based on a basket of measuring including migration, job growth, and new job openings.

Among counties with a population greater than 100,000, Maricopa, AZ (Phoenix) and Clark, NV (Las Vegas) finished at the top. There were four Texas suburban counties in the top 10, and there were 12 counties in Florida in the top 40.

Many of the winners were mid-sized, suburban counties, though some more urban counties like Fulton, GA (Atlanta) have surged in the rankings.

Again, this is based on pre-coronavirus data. It confirms that the performance of America’s largest superstar city markets had fallen off towards the end of the decade. With the economic and demographic fallout from the coronavirus hitting these markets hard, these places look likely to stay at the bottom of the charts for at least the near-term future.


Aaron M. Renn is an opinion-leading urban analyst, consultant, speaker and writer on a mission to help America’s cities and people thrive and find real success in the 21st century. He focuses on urban, economic development and infrastructure policy in the greater American Midwest. He also regularly contributes to and is cited by national and global media outlets, and his work has appeared in many publications, including the The Guardian, The New York Times and The Washington Post.

Silicon Valley Exits California for Texas

The big news this week is all the different tech companies announcing their moves to Texas.

The big one for Houston is the announcement that HP Enterprise is moving its HQ from Silicon Valley to Spring just north of Houston - a long-term legacy benefit of Compaq Computer (which was acquired by HP and kept substantial operations here).

“Houston is also an attractive market for us to recruit and retain talent, and a great place to do business,” Mr. Neri said, adding that as one of the largest and most diverse cities in the country, “Houston provides the opportunity over time to draw more diverse talent into our ranks.”

  • And some more detail from their press release: (hat tip George)

"Why Houston?

Houston has long been our largest U.S. employment hub, and construction has been underway since the beginning of the year on a new, state-of-the-art campus in the area. Houston is also an attractive market for us to recruit and retain talent, and a great place to do business. The most diverse city in America and the fourth largest, Houston provides the opportunity over time to draw more diverse talent into our ranks – a key priority for HPE as we work to be unconditionally inclusive.

We also anticipate long term cost savings associated with this move that we can reinvest in key areas of our business and innovation."

  • And finally a repost from Facebook that digs into what that increased affordability really means for employees:

"Hewlett-Packard announced its leaving Palo Alto for Houston.
$1,100 is the average rent in Houston.
$3,350 is the average rent in Palo Alto.

Just to give a concept of how much the extra $2,250 a month that saves is.
$530 is the average monthly payment on a car.
$460 is the monthly individual cost of health insurance.
$400 is the average monthly cost of food.
$145 is the average monthly spending on gas for a car.
$130 is the average monthly cost of car insurance.
$1,665 a month total.

Those 5 things which are just as essential for people in Palo Alto as Houston and cost about as much in both places cost that much.

If an HP employee moved to Houston and cut rent cost down, but chose to save $585 more a month and put it in a 401k paying 5% for 10 years, they’d have $92,700 or 7 years average rent in Houston.

Those 5 things are also essential, so let’s just say an HP employee moved to Houston and saved the entire $2,250 a month for 10 years.
$27,000 saved a year.
$357,000 saved over 10 years.
27 years worth of rent in Houston.
9 years worth of rent in Palo Alto.

A lot of people have a lot of different reasons for companies leaving, but I think the rent factor and how it’s extremely hard for employees to live is the problem.

Hewlett-Packard was the birth of Silicon Valley and it’s leaving.

I don’t see it as unlikely a future where Facebook, Uber, Google and more could join."

Then there are the other stories on Elon Musk's and Oracle's moves to Austin:

"California, with its steep housing costs, raging wildfires and strict business regulations, has been losing residents to other states, with Texas as the most popular exodus destination. Of more than 653,000 people who left California last year, about 82,000 went to Texas, more than any other state, according to census figures.

Or, as The Stanford Review wrote in a nod to the native Texan George Strait, “All of California’s Exes Are Moving to Texas.” (????) ...

California and Texas — two economic powerhouses, one led by Democrats and the other by Republicans, with respective populations of 40 million and 29 million — are in many ways natural frenemies. It is a rivalry made up of In-N-Out versus Whataburger, of Disneyland versus the State Fair of Texas, of tacos versus, well, other tacos."

"Taxes, a more affordable cost of living for employees, a lower cost of doing business, and less competition for talent are among the top drivers for the companies’ moves, though there is also a growing sense that culture is a factor, as well."

All in all a very good week for Houston and Texas! Let's hope this is just the beginning of a much larger tech exodus from California to Texas...

This piece first appeared on Houston Strategies Blogspot.


Tory Gattis is a Founding Senior Fellow with the Urban Reform Institute and co-authored the original study with noted urbanist Joel Kotkin and others, creating a city philosophy around upward social mobility for all citizens as an alternative to the popular smart growth, new urbanism, and creative class movements. He is also an editor of the Houston Strategies blog.

Zooming Out on LA

There’s no longer any question that Los Angeles has arrived as a global city—if Hollywood’s reach doesn’t make the case then the Asian money behind its new skyline and preparations for a record-setting third Olympiad should.

The more apt question these days is which Los Angeles excites the world?

The Los Angeles of Rodeo Drive? Or the Huntington Gardens? Or Disneyland?

And there’s the rub—because none of those places is in the City of Los Angeles.

Rodeo Drive and the Huntington Gardens are both in the larger territory known as Los Angeles County. The former is famous as the high street of Beverly Hills, the latter a staid cultural preserve in San Marino.

Those two toney and independent towns are on opposite sides of LA County, which covers 4,000 square miles and includes 88 municipalities altogether.

You have to expand to the larger concept of Southern California to get to Disneyland, which is in Orange County, directly south of LA.

LA gets a lot of credit for its neighbors’ achievements, as well as its own—but the outsized image is a two-edged sword.

The latest report from the World Trade Center of Los Angeles provides some insights, giving data on foreign-owned businesses with operations in Southern California.

You might expect LA County to punch above its weight on foreign investment as the undisputed center of the sun-dappled landscape, with its population of 10 million approaching half of the region’s total. Among the assets likely to appeal to foreign investors at the practical and executive levels are the biggest airport in Southern California, twin seaports that are the busiest in the U.S., three research universities, 76 hospitals, numerous renowned museum and performance venues, nine professional sports teams, and 66 Consulates General.

Yet LA County looks to be just another option for foreign investment on Southern California’s expansive landscape.

There are nearly 12,000 foreign-owned firms in Southern California, and LA County is home to fewer than half of them.

The same goes for the 461,447 jobs at foreign-owned enterprises throughout the region–and for the $18.1 billion in annual wages they generate.

The numbers get worse for LA County when you consider investments coming from key overseas markets, including the UK, a leading trade partner of Southern California.

UK businesses combine to account for 76,000 jobs and $6.1 billion in annual payroll in Southern California, with about two-thirds of each total landing outside of City of Los Angeles or LA County.

A number of other top 10 sources of foreign investment in Southern California also index low for LA.

Los Angeles is a global magnet when viewed from afar.

But consider LA within its regional setting of Southern California and it’s about on par with a lot of other places that are miles away from Hollywood or the ports or a courtside seat to watch LeBron James perform for the world-famous Lakers basketball franchise.

The data on foreign-owned businesses and where they locate in Southern California serve to concentrate the mind on LA’s problem, which range from a federal corruption probe of City Hall to rampant encampments of rough sleepers and a municipal budget devastated by Covid-19 while feckless politicians fiddle.

Meanwhile, some of the best public schools are down in Orange County, there is world-class golf out in the Riverside County burg of Palm Springs, and you’ll find world-class resorts up in Santa Barbara County.

And you can check just about anywhere for better roads.

LA’s image is big.

But it seems foreign investors have learned that hype doesn’t fill potholes.

Jerry Sullivan is founder and chief columnist for SullivanSaysSoCal.com.

Recap of the Post-Pandemic Housing Reality Webinar

Over 200 attendees joined our panelist for a webinar hosted by Urban Reform Institute on December 4. If you missed the event, you can watch the video below:

Related:

Read the 2020 Report on Ownership and Opportunity.