In a recent focus group we held with 11 U.S. and foreign-born Latinos in Riverside, California, most of the participants expressed grave concerns about the breakup of hard-working and law-abiding families in what one participant called ICE’s “war” against Latinos. And yet, when asked if they were optimistic about the future, all 11 enthusiastically said “yes.”
Their responses reflected the broader patterns of progress and severe challenges we uncovered in an analysis of national data and on-the-ground reporting for our new report, “The Rise Of Latino America.” Even as President Trump reduces immigration flows, the country’s demographic and economic fate will be shaped increasingly by people with ties to Mexico, Central, and South America, who became the nation’s largest minority group in 2019. The key findings of our report, published by the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas, include:
- Demographic Surge: Latinos have grown from 5% of the U.S. population in 1970 to 20% in 2023, accounting for 56.3% of population growth from 2010 to 2023. By 2060, they will drive nearly all net population growth.
- Economic Powerhouse: The U.S. Latino G.D.P. reached $3.7 trillion in 2022, the world’s fifth-largest, growing at 4.6% annually and outpacing the national average. States like Texas and Florida see significant Latino economic contributions.
- Geographic Dispersion: Latino populations are spreading beyond the Southwest to the Midwest, Southeast, and smaller metros like Pittsburgh and Nashville, reflecting economic opportunity-seeking migration.
- Optimism Amid Challenges: Despite poverty rates (e.g., 29.6% for illegal Latino immigrants in California) and educational gaps, 75% of Latinos remain optimistic about achieving their “dream home” and the American Dream. They also value hard work (94% cite it as key to success).
- Educational Progress and Gaps: Latino college enrollment has surged 372% since 1990, but only 16% earn bachelor’s degrees compared to 43% of whites, with lags in high-demand fields like technology.
- Entrepreneurial Growth: Latino-owned businesses, especially in construction and food services, are the fastest-growing, employing 2.9 million workers with $620 billion in sales in 2019.
- Policy Barriers: High-cost housing policies, climate-driven regulations, and anti-car mandates in states like California increase living costs and limit job access, disproportionately harming Latinos.
- Policy Recommendations: We advocate for affordable single-family housing, lower regulatory barriers, sensible energy policies, and accessible transportation to support Latino priorities like homeownership, safety, and economic mobility.
Embracing policies that align with Latino aspirations rooted in work, family, and opportunity will not only empower this vital population but also strengthen America’s economic and demographic future in a competitive global environment.
The fate of Latinos will only grow more important to the American story as their impact is felt throughout the country. Until fairly recently, Latino influence was felt primarily in the Southwest, with those from the Caribbean concentrating in cities like New York, Chicago, and Miami. Today, the fastest-growing Latino populations are now in the country’s interior, from the mid-South to the Great Lakes, where hard work makes homeownership affordable in communities without the usual public disorder and underperforming public schools that are common in those governed by progressives and their allies.
Read the rest of this piece at: Real Clear Investigations.
Authors
Jennifer Hernandez has practiced land use and environmental law for more than 30 years, and leads Holland & Knight's West Coast Land Use and Environmental Group. She is a former longtime co-chair of the firm's national Land Use and Government Team. Ms. Hernandez divides her time between the firm's San Francisco and Los Angeles offices.
Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
Photo: courtesy Civitas Institute.
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