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Housing Boom? Not in the Land of Lincoln

You’d think housing prices are rising everywhere in America, the way the current boom is discussed. And that’s nearly true, for lots of reasons: the low interest rates on mortgages; the bidding up of asset prices at a time of loose money; the desire for bigger and more distanced properties in the pandemic, and the swallowing up of thousands of tract homes by investment outfits looking to rent them.

But even with those influences, not everywhere is rising by double-digit percentages annually. People can only live—or own—in so many places at once. And so it is that in a good 10 metropolitan areas, according to realty data site CoreLogic, you’ve barely seen any price appreciation in the five years to June 2021. So, nearly no gain for existing homeowners, and no frightening increases for affordability migrants.

Read the rest of this piece at TimWFerguson.com.


Tim W. Ferguson, the former editor of Forbes’s Asia edition, writes about business, economics and society.

Metropolitan Growth: 2020 Census

The recently released 2020 Census count indicates that the nation now has 56 major metropolitan areas (over 1,000,000 residents), with the addition of Fresno, Tulsa and Honolulu toward the end of the decade. The Table below provides detailed information.

New York, the largest metropolitan area, climbed to 20.1 million from 18.9 million in 2010. New York had the second largest population increase, at 1,243,000. This was a 6.6% population increase, slightly below the 7.4% national growth rate. For the first time in decades, New York led Los Angeles in population growth, and it wasn’t even close. New York’s population increase was 3.3 times that of second ranked Los Angeles, which gained 372,000. The Los Angeles percentage growth rate (2.9%) was stunningly low for a metro that had been among the faster growing in the world for decades. Out of the 20 largest metropolitan areas, Los Angeles grew slower than all but two. Los Angeles edged up to 13.2 million according to the census count.

Chicago ranked third, at 9.6 million, having added only 157,000 (1.7%) over the last 10 years.

Fourth ranked Dallas-Fort Worth reached 7.6 million, an increase of 1,271,000, the largest increase of any metropolitan area (20.0%). However, in-state rival Houston had greater percentage growth, at 20.3%, adding 1,202,000 to reach 7.1 million and now ranks 5th largest.

Washington continued its strong growth, adding 736,000 new residents, the fifth strongest gain (13.0%). Washington now ranks sixth largest in the nation, at 6.4 million. During the decade, Washington passed Philadelphia, now ranked 7th , having also been passed by Houston and by Dallas-Fort Worth in the 2000s. In the 2020 census and since the 1960 census, Philadelphia had been the nation’s fourth largest metropolitan area. Philadelphia added 278,000 residents, with a population of 6.2 million in 2020.

Boston added 389,000 residents (8.5%) since 2010 and ranked 10th. Boston had a population of 4.9 million. Phoenix ranked 11th and had a 653,000 population increase (15.6%). San Francisco reached 4.8 million, with Riverside-San Bernardino following closely at 4.7 million. Both of these California metros had larger census count increases than Los Angeles.

Fourteenth ranked Detroit grew by nearly 100,000, for a 2.2% increase, which is rivals that of Los Angeles. Detroit’s count was 4.4 million. Detroit was passed by Phoenix and Riverside-San Bernardino over the decade.

Seattle ranked 14th and had a population of 4.0 million. Seattle gained 579,000 residents for a growth rate of 16.8%.

The fastest growing major metropolitan area was Austin, at 33.0% (567,000). Austin reached 2.3 million and ranks 28th largest. One other major metropolitan area had growth over half-a-million, Orlando, at 539,000, a growth rate of 25.3%. Orlando had a count of 2.7 million, ranking 22nd.

Overall, the major metropolitan areas grew above the national rate, at 9.4%. The 2020 total count for the 56 metros was 189.1 million, representing 57.1% of the national population. This is up from 55.9% in 2010. None of the major metros lost population, though there were some very thin gains. The slowest growing was Hartford, at 0.1%, followed by Cleveland (0.5%) and Pittsburgh (0.6%). Finally, areas outside the historical core municipalities had 78.2 % of the population growth, somewhat more than their 73.4% 2010 share of major metro population (see Note below).

Click the image above to download a PDF of the census information (opens in new tab or window)

Note: This definition of “suburbs” excludes functionally suburban areas within historical core municipalities. About 58% of historical core municipality population is functionally suburban or exurban, according to the City Sector Model, while 86% of the major metro population is functionally suburban or exurban.


Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Feudal Future Podcast — The Crisis on Labor

On this episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Robyn Domber, DCI’s Vice President of Research, Lane Windham, Associate Director at Georgetown University‘s Kalmanovitz Initiative for Labor and the Working Poor, and Michael Bernick, Director of California’s labor department. The panel discusses the root causes of labor shortages and solutions for the future.

For more information click here:

 www.chapman.edu/asktheexperts

To register for the event click here:

chapman.zoom.us

[02:50] Defining remote work

[05:29] Occupancy in suburban offices

[18:45] Geography of offices

[35:58] Threats with commercial real estate

Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.
Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.
Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Learn about Joel’s book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Listen on Apple Podcast

Listen on Stitcher

Listen on Spotify

More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch Episode Video

Why Did Larry Elder Call Me for Advice?

The emergence of 69-year-old talk show host Larry Elder as the leading candidate to depose California’s Gavin Newsom is both odd and significant. Elder is no one’s idea of a politician, and when he called me for advice at the start of his run, I was perplexed. I thought Larry had it all — the nest egg, nice house, successful career.

Newsom, who I once described as Governor Preen, and his operatives in and out of the media, have already started attacking Elder. Under the talk show host, they claim, abortion rights will be restricted and the state’s crusade against climate change and social justice will be hampered. The irony is in the fact that Elder will be attacked as candidate of the rich and greedy in ads paid for by oligarchs who epitomise this very greed on a massive scale.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.

Feudal Future Podcast: What Works Best? The Office Debate: Work From Home vs. Work at the Office

On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Doug Holte, the President of Irvine Company Office Properties and formerly served as a West Coast regional partner with the international real estate firm Hines, Kate Lister, president of Global Workplace Analytics (GWA), a research and consulting firm that helps employers understand and prepare for the future of work, and Andrew Segal, co-founder of Stemmons Enterprise software company. The panel discusses the effects of remote work and going back to the office that has exposed through the pandemic.

Join us for our free online event September 1st at 9am PST: THE WORLD AFTER COVID. The event will feature Richard Florida, the world’s premier urban expert, who will discuss the global future with leading experts from US, Europe, Africa and Asia. Florida, author of The Creative Class and the New Urban Crisis, will be followed by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow in urban futures at Chapman; Behki Mahlobo, analyst and economic researcher at the Center of Risk Analysis in Johannesburg; Li Sun, expert of Chinese cities and professor at University of Leeds; and Laure Mandeville-Tostain, senior reporter for Le Figaro in Paris.

For more information click here:

 www.chapman.edu/asktheexperts

To register for the event click here:

chapman.zoom.us

[02:50] Defining remote work

[05:29] Occupancy in suburban offices

[18:45] Geography of offices

[35:58] Threats with commercial real estate

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.
Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.
Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.
Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Learn about Joel’s book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Listen on Apple Podcast

Listen on Stitcher

Listen on Spotify

More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch Episode Video