housing affordability

Feudal Future Podcast: Navigating the Housing Affordability Crisis

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Thu, 15 Aug 2024 14:33:07 -0400

Housing prices are through the roof, but why? Join us as we navigate the complex maze of housing affordability with insights from Ross Elliott, Peter Holle, and Wendell Cox. We break down how decades of flawed policies and excessive regulations have made homeownership a distant dream for many in the U.S., Canada, and Australia.

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This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Update on the Relationship Between House Values and Rents

Wendell Cox — Thu, 06 Jun 2024 17:46:01 -0400

According to the latest information (American Community Survey, 2022), the strong relationship between median house values and median gross rents remains --- at a correlation coefficient of plus 0.89 (on a scale of perfect correlation [plus 1.00] or no correlation [-1.00]). This result, calculated from matching data in the 508 reported upon metropolitan and micropolitan areas (also called “functional urban areas”), is statistically significant at the 99% confidence level.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Why People are Moving Out of California

New Geography — Sat, 26 Mar 2022 15:35:23 -0400

Wendell Cox talks with California Insider about costs of living and who is moving away from the Golden State.

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Restoring the California Dream

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Wed, 19 Jan 2022 17:32:25 -0500

Join us for a webinar on January 21st, hosted by Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky to learn how we can restore the California Dream for middle and working class Californians. Following the presentation of the report, there will be an all-star panel led by Jeff Ball, new CEO of the Orange County Business Council.

Panel participants include Raul Anaya, Joe Hensley, and Karla Del Rio.

Demographia Housing Affordability in Canada 2021 Supplemental

Wendell Cox — Thu, 23 Dec 2021 16:07:31 -0500

Demographia Housing Affordability in Canada, assesses middle-income housing affordability (Section 1) using the Median Multiple,” which is the market rate median house price divided by the pre-tax median household income (gross income).

Read the full Report here: DEMOGRAPHIA HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN CANADA

The Median Multiple is widely used for evaluating housing markets. It has been recommended by the World Bank and the United Nations and has been used by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. The Median Multiple and other price-to-income multiples (housing affordability multiples) are used to compare housing affordability between markets by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the International Monetary Fund, The Economist, and other organizations.

Historically, liberally regulated markets have exhibited median house prices that are three times or less that of median household incomes (a Median Multiple of 3.0 or less). Demographia uses the housing affordability ratings in Table 1.

Housing Affordability in Canada: The Context

Among the major markets, housing remained comparatively affordable from 1970 to the mid-2000s, though the Vancouver market had become severely unaffordable. Since then, however, housing affordability has deteriorated materially. Housing was generally affordable in Canada’s as late as the mid-2000s. For example, house prices have increased the equivalent of 7.7 years of median household income in Vancouver from 2004/2005 and 6.0 years in Toronto.

House price increases have been substantial in the other major markets. Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau house prices have increased the equivalent of more than two years of annual median household income. Calgary and Edmonton, prices rose about the equivalent of one year.

This piece first appeared on Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

125+ Years Savings for House Down Payment in L.A., S.F. and San Jose

Wendell Cox — Mon, 01 Nov 2021 11:44:49 -0400

A just published report by Knock.com (see note) estimates that, at current prices, the median income household could require between 115 and 167 years to save for a down payment on the median priced new home in some major metropolitan areas.

A just published report by Knock.com (see note) estimates that, at current prices, the median income household would require 12 years to save for a down payment on the median priced new house. This shortest down payment saving period is in the Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Atlanta metropolitan areas.

Among the markets in which new construction house transactions were eight percent or more of sales, Metro Miami and metro Sacramento had the longest down payment saving periods, at 30 and 21 years respectively. In both of these markets, only 20% of households could qualify for a mortgage on the median priced new house, according to Knock.com.

However, among the markets where new housing construction was less than the eight percent level, housing was far more expensive. Knock.com estimates that the median income household would need to save 115 years in metro New York to save for a down payment on the median priced new house. Three coastal California metros would require more than 125 years of savings for a down payment.

127 years in metro San Jose (includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties).
153 years in metro Los Angeles (includes both Los Angeles and Orange counties)
167 years in metro San Francisco (includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Alameda, Contra Costa and Marin counties.

The irony is that San Francisco and San Jose metropolitan area residents have been reported to be migrating to the Sacramento area for more affordable housing.

Each of the four metros with the longest down payment saving time were rated severely unaffordable in Demographia International Housing Affordability: 2021, published by the Urban Reform Institute (US) and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy (Canada). Among the markets in which new housing represented eight percent or more of housing transactions, Sacramento, Miami, Denver and Las Vegas were also severely unaffordable.

Note: Knock.com is a real estate firm established in 2015 by founding team members of Trulia.com Survey press release.

Frontier Thinkers Corner: Housing Affordability

New Geography — Fri, 29 Oct 2021 15:31:16 -0400

Wendell Cox joins host David Lees for a discussion on housing affordability and the root causes of the unaffordable housing crisis.

This in-depth overview of the affordability crisis with world renowned housing affordability expert Wendell Cox. This webinar will reveal key insights based on his many years of landmark research including the internationally cited Demographia Housing Affordability Index (Frontier Centre is the Canadian distribution partner). His international and domestic case studies give participants a whole new appreciation for why we are in this current housing crisis and why now is the time for a rethink of housing policy to make it more affordable.

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Housing Affordability in the Major Russian Metropolitan Areas, 3rd Quarter 2020

Tatiana Polidi — Thu, 08 Apr 2021 13:02:53 -0400

The Institute for Urban Economics presents the research on Housing Affordability in the major Russian metro area (as of the 3rd quarter 2020).

Despite economic distress and incomes drop housing prices displayed a strong positive trend in 16 out of 17 major metro markets in Russia.

Actually in the pandemic crisis housing markets are getting more influenced by the overall financial situation as well as by fundamental economic factors.

The price growth was encouraged among other reasons by the state program on the provision of subsidies for the mortgage interest rates accompanied by decline of savings yields.

Read/download the report here

The Way You Move: Author Joel Kotkin on Migration Trends and the Future of CIties

New Geography — Wed, 31 Mar 2021 14:28:20 -0400

Joel Kotkin joins Spencer Levy on The Weekly Take to discuss current migration trends and the future of cities.

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Related:

The Death of the American City

Why More Americans Should Leave Home and Move to Other States