high-speed rail

Newsom, the Legislature, and $20 Billion for Doubtful High-speed Rail

Wendell Cox — Mon, 15 Sep 2025 12:04:26 -0400

It is reported that California governor Gavin Newsom and the state legislature have agreed to provide $20 billion in funding ($1 billion annually) from the state’s cap and trade program. The California High Speed Rail Authority indicates that the total cost of the Gilroy to Palmdale segment would be $87 billion and would be completed by 2038.

There is still a considerable funding gap for the Gilroy to Merced (or Madera) segment. This portion of the route includes expensive tunneling through Pacheco Pass. Then there is the Bakersfield to Palmdale segment over Tehachapi Pass which is probably even more challenging.

If the present plan works out (and no one would be more surprised at that than me), a passenger getting on the train in San Francisco might wait up to three hours for the last part of the trip to Los Angeles. Of course, CHSRA could substitute bus connection service for anything they don’t finish, like the Amtrak San Joaquin’s do already on the Bakersfield to Los Angeles segment.

CHSRA indicated that this agreement “resolves all identified funding gaps for the Early Operating Segment (Merced to Palmdale).” I doubt it. The scaled back project could take many more years and many billions more.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a Senior Fellow with Unleash Prosperity in Washington and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985), which was a predecessor agency to the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro). Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Trump Says No More Federal Money to California Boondoggle

Wendell Cox — Fri, 09 May 2025 16:46:15 -0400

President Trump announced that the federal government would no longer provide financial support to the California High-Speed Rail project, according to the New York Times.

According to Trump, “That train is the worst cost overrun I’ve ever seen,” “It’s, like, totally out of control.” He added: “This government is not going to pay.”

Izzy Gordon, spokesman for Governor Gain Newsom responded: “With 50 major structures built, walking away now as we enter the track-laying phase would be reckless — wasting billions already invested and letting job-killers cede a generational infrastructure advantage to China.”

In fact, the recklessness was California’s alone, which chose to spend billions of money that it did not have, apparently on the assumption that the taxpayers of the other 49 states would have no alternative but to continue funding. The “unused 50 major structures” could ultimately become a memorial to an overly costly project that had been oversold from the start. An appropriate name could be “Stonehenge in the Valley.”

Recently, Unleash Prosperity released my report (“California High-Speed Rail: Still Stuck at the Station”) suggesting that the presently estimated $128 billion ultimate cost to link Los Angeles to San Francisco could double that amount ($250 billion), if the cost escalation of the first third of the project continues. As the state established Peer Review Group has said, so far the work has been in the easy part. The much more complicated segments from Palmdale to Los Angeles

Korea Abolishes Seoul-Incheon Airport High-Speed Rail Line

Wendell Cox — Fri, 17 Aug 2018 20:19:25 -0400

The Nikkei Asian Review reports that: “A high-speed rail line connecting Seoul to Incheon International Airport will be abolished after just four years of service, as the expensive, politically motivated project loses the ridership race to buses.” Incheon is the principal international airport for the world’s fourth largest urban area, Seoul, which has 24 million residents. The Review reported that “Average daily ridership last year totaled only 3,433 passengers, which left 77% of seats unoccupied. Carriages were especially empty during weekday hours.”

The Review contrasted this with the airport volume: “Yet 42.23 million passengers boarded international flights during the first half of 2018, up 14% on the year, transport ministry data shows. … These numbers indicate that air passengers simply did not choose KTX to reach the Seoul-area airport.”

The line had fallen 97 percent short of its projected ridership, according to The Korea Times, which reported that daily ridership was to have reached 490,000 by 2010, yet was only 16,000 last year. This may have been the highest projection error in the history of an industry plagued by such inaccuracies (see: High-Speed Rail: Toward Least-Worst Projections).

High-Speed Rail Cost Blowout in England?

Wendell Cox — Sun, 22 Jul 2018 20:52:55 -0400

The Sunday Times (London) reports that it has obtained a secret Cabinet report indicating that “The HS2 high-speed rail project is “highly likely” to go as much as 60% over budget and cost “more than £80 billion.” HS2 refers to the high speed rail project intended to link London to Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and the East Midlands. According to The Sunday Times the government’s Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) called the plan “fundamentally flawed” and in a “precarious position.” Further, according to The Sunday Times, "cost escalation in the £56bn project could threaten wider public spending, interfering with funding across other government departments.”

The Cabinet report comes just weeks after release of a report by the European Union Court of Auditors. Particularly relevant to the HS2 are the Court's findings that EU high speed rail projects have been overbuilt. As we reported, “The European Court of Auditors found that high-speed rail has been built to considerably higher standards than required by their actual operation. They concluded that average speed are so far below the design speed that it 'raises questions as to sound financial management." The Court further found that: “The costs involved could in fact have been far lower, with little or no impact on operations.”

Coincidentally, The Sunday Times indicates that many members of Parliament would favor improvements to the conventional rail service in the corridor, which would obviously cost much less.