Africa

South Africa: Still the World’s Most Race-Regulated Country?

Hügo Krüger — Thu, 11 Dec 2025 19:18:28 -0500

As South Africa hosts the G20 Summit in Johannesburg on 22-23 November 2025, the event has been overshadowed by two high-profile disputes over race policy.

First, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a full boycott by U.S. officials, declaring on Truth Social that holding the G20 in South Africa was “a total disgrace” because of alleged government-sponsored discrimination against Afrikaners, including claims of killings and land confiscations.

Second, and directly tied to the same debate, the Afrikaner trade union Solidarity in November 2025 erected more than 30 digital billboards and banners along key G20 routes proclaiming South Africa “the most race-regulated country in the world”.

Johannesburg authorities removed most of them within hours, citing lack of permits. Solidarity immediately obtained an urgent interim interdict from the High Court, replaced the boards, and—in protest—escalated by erecting over 50 additional banners across Gauteng highways and airport approaches. Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi publicly welcomed the initial removals as a defeat of “racism” and labelled Solidarity members “racists” on X, while the union accused him of censorship and incitement. Meanwhile, the South African Presidency dismissed the campaign as the work of a “tiny right-wing minority” intent on embarrassing the nation.

With regards to race laws, South Africa currently has 142 pieces of national legislation that explicitly or implicitly make race a legal criterion for rights, benefits, obligations or penalties. This is more than existed at the height of apartheid (123 in 1980), according to the Institute of Race Relations’ continuously updated Index of Race Law, last revised on 11 June 2025. Of the 142, 116 have been enacted since 1994.

The list includes major framework laws such as the Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment Act (2003), the Employment Equity Act (1998), the Preferential Procurement Policy Framework Act (2000) and recent amendments to sector charters (mining, water services, electricity, etc.) that impose minimum Black ownership or management percentages as licensing conditions.

A significant portion of the 142 statutes are, however, outdated or partially obsolete. At least 26 pre-1994 laws still on the statute book contain racial references that have never been repealed or amended (for example, old group-areas extensions, certain pension-fund racial clauses, and remnants of the Population Registration Act repeal process that left stray provisions intact). Critics of the IRR index therefore argue that the “142” figure is inflated because it mixes active transformative legislation with dormant apartheid-era relics.

Read the rest of this piece at Hügo's Newsletter.

Hügo Krüger is a South African born Structural/Nuclear Engineer, writer and YouTube podcaster, commentating on topics relating to Energy and Geopolitical Matters, Hügo is married to an Iranian born Mathematician and Artist; the couple resides in Paris.

Photo: courtesy Hügo's Newsletter.

China's Scramble for Africa

Joel Kotkin and Bheki Mahlobo — Sun, 28 Sep 2025 20:28:38 -0400

The West is about to get its comeuppance – if it does not wake up. The balance of the world economy is shifting decisively to what was once seen as the Third World, a shift led by China and, to a lesser extent, India. It is a dynamic that China hopes to exploit in order to replace America as the new global rule-maker. One region in particular is at the centre of China’s economic and geopolitical plans: Africa.

The rise of Africa, which now has 11 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies, is only just beginning. And China’s strategy is clearly focussed on harvesting Africa’s growing wealth, while sidelining the US and the diminished former European powers. In 2023, the EU’s then foreign-affairs and security-policy chief, Josep Borrell, warned that, ‘Little by little, we are losing Africa’.

Africa’s importance begins with its unparalleled resource endowments, particularly in critical minerals. These are used to power everything from fighter jets to smartphones. The Democratic Republic of Congo alone controls over 70 per cent of the world’s cobalt reserves – a critical mineral used in electric-vehicle batteries and jet engines. South Africa boasts over 80 per cent of global platinum and 70 per cent of the world’s chromium, minerals without which we couldn’t make jewellery, car exhausts or most industrial applications.

These strategic materials provide the foundation for modern technological civilisation, and China has systematically secured preferential access through long-term partnerships that exclude American and other Western competitors. Beyond critical minerals, the continent also has substantial deposits of oil, natural gas, diamonds and gold. Nigeria and Angola are among the top 20 oil-producing nations, while Mozambique’s liquefied-natural-gas reserves promise to reshape global energy markets. China has invested heavily in all three countries. In recent years, it has also upped its investment in oil-rich Libya, a major producer once aligned with Europe.

African agriculture is also strategically important. With 60 per cent of the world’s uncultivated arable land, Africa represents the world’s last major frontier for agricultural expansion. Perennially facing ‘food-security concerns’, China has recognised this potential, and is investing heavily in African agricultural infrastructure and securing long-term food-supply agreements. This will reduce China’s dependence on American agricultural exports while positioning itself as Africa’s primary food-security partner.

Most importantly, Africa is producing the one critical asset that the world economy needs most: people. While China’s population is projected to decline, falling to 1940s levels by 2100, Africa’s population is heading in the opposite direction. It is projected to double to 2.5 billion by 2050, with the median age remaining below 25 throughout this period. Critically, Africa is predicted to be home to 25 per cent of all working-age adults by 2050.

Given Africa’s vast resources, agricultural potential and population growth, one would think Western capitalists and their governments might be seeking to invest in Africa. But instead, the African economy has acquired a distinctly Chinese cast, with little competition from the West. Beijing’s approach to Africa represents the most comprehensive foreign-engagement strategy on the continent since European colonialism.

Read the rest of this piece at: Spiked.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Bheki Mahlobo is an economist at Cronje Private Clients. He specialises in economic and financial markets research as well as political trend analysis.

Photo: President Cyril Ramaphosa and President Xi Jinping Co-Chair the China - Africa Leaders Round Table; GovernmentZA, via Flickr, CC 4.0 License.

Reframing African Media

Jamila Salih and Bheki Mahlobo — Fri, 01 Aug 2025 20:28:38 -0400

When people think about media, Africa is rarely the first thing that comes to mind. And when it does come up, it is often portrayed through a very narrow lens—poverty, conflict, or outdated stereotypes.

But African media is so much more than that. It is powerful, growing, and deeply influential across music, film, fashion, and even digital innovation. That is why it is important that we start paying attention.

Media serves as the backbone of any democratic society. It informs citizens, holds leaders accountable, and provides a platform for diverse voices. In Africa, media has played a pivotal role in shaping public opinion, influencing political outcomes, and driving social change. However, the media landscape across the continent is as diverse as its cultures, languages, and histories.

In many African countries, media outlets have been instrumental in exposing corruption, advocating for human rights, and promoting transparency. Investigative journalism has uncovered scandals that have led to governmental reforms and, in some cases, the resignation of public officials. Moreover, media has been a tool for education, raising awareness about health issues, environmental concerns, and social injustices.

Yet, the media in Africa faces numerous challenges. Press freedom is often under threat, with journalists facing harassment, censorship, and even violence. Economic constraints limit the reach and quality of media outlets, especially in rural areas. Additionally, the dominance of foreign media narratives often overshadows local voices, leading to a misrepresentation of African realities.

Read and download the full report.

Contributors

Jamila Salih is the primary author of this report. She grew up in Denver, Colorado, and spent some of her high school years in Ethiopia, gaining a unique global perspective early on. She later moved to California for college, where she earned a degree from Chapman University. Jamila now works in marketing consulting at a biotech company — AmplifiDx, combining creativity with strategy to support innovation in the health and science space.

Bheki Mahlobo provided written data anaylsis for this report.
Bheki is an economist and Partner at Frans Cronje Private Clients. He began his career at the Centre for Risk Analysis before joining the financial consulting firm ETM Analytics as a financial analyst. Specialising in economic and financial markets research as well as political trend analysis, Bheki has briefed numerous companies on South Africa’s long-term economic, market, and political outlook. He has drafted an extensive range of analytical notes and reports and he co-author of a chapter in the book The Future of Cities, written in collaboration with Professor Joel Kotkin of the American Enterprise Institute.

Raised in the rural Eastern Cape village of Lupapasi and later relocating to Johannesburg for his schooling, Bheki brings a unique perspective to his work. He is currently pursuing a Masters in Behavioural and Computational Economics at Chapman University, further enhancing his expertise in the field.

Marshall Toplansky wrote the introduction, and Joel Kotkin served as editor for this report.

Africa's Deep Tech Centers

Nima Sanandaji — Tue, 24 Jun 2025 20:28:38 -0400

Deep tech development is dominated by North America, Europe and Asia, however the competition from Africa is also becoming noticeable. Africa´s growing economies already host some of the world´s leading 500 deep tech companies.

This is the finding of the Deep Tech Index. Conducted annually by the European Centre for Entrepreneurship and Policy Reform (ECEPR) with the support of Nordic Capital, this study maps and evaluates the global deep tech landscape.

West Africa has a long history of technological and economic prosperity. Mansa Musa, the 14^th century ruler who is estimated to have been the richest individual in history, is famously from this part of the world.

Nigeria is currently the largest population center of Africa. While the sixth most populous country in the world currently, Nigeria is also experiencing a strong long-term population growth. The size allows economics of scale and in turn success in technologically advanced fields.

Government integrity, property rights and juridical effectiveness need improving in Nigeria, as does business freedom. The level of taxation and government expenditure is however low, which encourages more private business and leads to limited crowding out of private enterprises through government policy.

Lagos in southwestern Nigeria is the most populous city in Africa, and an important center for development of world leading deep tech. The same is true of the nation´s capital Abuja. Both regions have strengths in clean tech. Growing populations in Africa lead to much development of companies dealing with managing the environmental impact of large population concentrations.

Additionally, Lagos is a key global center for photonic & electronic deep tech development. This illustrates that African nations have ability to compete in even the most advanced areas of technology.

Nairobi, the largest city and capital of Kenya, is East Africa’s leading deep tech hub. Nigeria has a similar pattern of economic policy, with strengths when it comes to limited taxation and public expenditure, but limited government integrity and property rights. Besides clean tech, Nairobi also has strength in clean energy deep tech development. A strong link exists between energy supply and prosperity. It is therefore relevant to stay ahead of energy technology in order to boost long term prosperity growth.

Developing with technology is not only a matter of climbing the technological ladder, increasing national security capabilities and boosting prosperity – it is also related to jobs.

Youth unemployment tends to be lower in countries that have many world leading deep tech companies per million adults.

This is because these companies create jobs directly, indirectly via other businesses as undersupplies in the value chain, and also locally through the income effect. The income effect arises because high value chains that bring in international exports pay their employees well, and create indirect revenues in other businesses in the value chain also boosting salary of these businesses – which in turn increases local purchase power and local taxes funding public services. New deep tech jobs stimulate other jobs to grow, boosting prosperity and reducing unemployment risk of the new generation.

Egypt is the deep tech leader of North Africa. The capital city of Cairo is a leading center for economic development and technological progress. The large population creates a need for clean technology solutions.

The economic policy performance of Egypt is similar to Kenya and Nigeria, with strengths in limited government and weaknesses in fair government. Property rights are relatively strong, while having need to further improve. With further reform Egypt can become a strong candidate for economic and technological progress. The key change needed is to improve judicial effectiveness and fiscal health.

It is both possible and likely that reforms to boost market economic functions will continue in the leading technological nations of Africa. One broader change that needs to happen is for African countries to invest more abroad. The global pattern is that countries with many world-leading deep tech companies tend to have high share of total economic output invested abroad.

South Africa is an African nation with a long tradition of investing abroad. Cape Town is widely considered the tech capital of South Africa. South Africa has stronger property rights and government integrity, more effective judicial system. The burden of taxation and government spending crowding out private sector spending is however somewhat higher.

Besides economic policy, the development of deep tech is strongly linked to education progress. African nations need to join the global PISA-project to systematically track, benchmark and improve their educational results.

While African students are currently important human resources in mathematical and technological institutes abroad, African nation’s themselves need to develop their own top universities. The aim needs to be for African universities to climb the ranks of the 100 best mathematical and technological institutes of the world.

An inspiration can be taken from India, Asia's leading deep tech center, and the world´s leading talent exporter. Five out of the top 100 best mathematical and technological institutes in the world are currently according to the QS World University Ranking Indian Institute of Technology centers - namely in Bombay, Delhi, Madras, Kharagpur and Kanpur. If India from which many top students and researchers migrate abroad can achieve this, it is also in the coming years possible for Africa’s best centers of higher learning to replicate a similar success.

Africa already has world leading deep tech centers – from Cape Town in the South, to Nairobi in the East, Lagos in the West, and Cairo in the North. Growing population, competitive wages and a willingness to grow with improved business climate allows for African nations to continue this progress. In terms of policy lessons from the world, African nations need to continue strengthening property rights and judicial efficiency. It is important to retain limited taxation and government spending and upgrading the education system including with focus on the best technological universities.

African nations both can and need to grow with deep tech, it is ultimately about creating the jobs, security and prosperity of the future with sound policies.

Nima Sanandaji, Director, European Centre for Entrepreneurship and Policy Reform (ECEPR)

Photo: Tech worker, via Unsplash in Public Domain.

Global Tally Of Alt-Energy Rejections Passes 1,000

Robert Bryce — Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:28:38 -0400

The rejections keep coming. Since the beginning of May, a provincial government in Queensland has rejected an enormous wind project, a county board in Illinois spiked a solar project, and a district council in East Devon vetoed a battery project.

Let’s take those in order.

Last week, a $1 billion wind project in central Queensland was rejected by provincial authorities. The 450-megawatt project, which included battery storage, faced fierce opposition from local residents. According to one news report, 142 residents responded to the government’s request for comments, and 88% opposed the project.

One of the project opponents was a grazier (the Aussie’s word for rancher) named John Ellrott. He told a reporter from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that “the Moonlight Range has got some very significant flora and fauna on it that needs conserving and doesn't need to be flattened...We don't need all our ranges covered in wind towers.” The rejection of the wind project adds more friction to the Australian government’s barmy plan to achieve net zero by 2050. (More on that below.)

Solar projects continue to see fierce opposition. In mid-May, county officials in Will County, Illinois, voted 16-5 to reject plans for a solar facility in New Lenox Township that was opposed by the township and nearby homeowners. According to an article in the Chicago Tribune, “More than 80 residents of the nearby Fieldstone Subdivision signed a petition stating the commercial solar energy facility would negatively impact their property values.”

Battery projects are also being rejected. In mid-May, the BBC reported that planners with the East Devon District Council rejected a lithium-ion battery storage project “after a three-and-a-half hour debate which saw residents raise concerns about fire risks and pollution. Despite the developer stating its equipment was 100% safe, examples of BESS [battery energy storage system] fires around the country were highlighted as evidence about why the scheme should be refused.”

As I have explained many times, these rejections don’t fit the narrative that’s relentlessly promoted by climate activists and their myriad allies in the legacy media about “green” energy. But the numbers are real, the numbers are growing, and they provide irrefutable evidence that land-use conflicts are the binding constraint on the growth of alt-energy. In all, when combining the 814 rejections of wind and solar projects in the US that I have documented in the Renewable Rejection Database with the global rejections of solar, wind, and batteries, the total number of alt-energy rejections or restrictions now exceeds 1,000 — it’s 1,011 to be exact.

Read the rest of this piece at Robert Bryce Substack.

Robert Bryce is a Texas-based author, journalist, film producer, and podcaster. His articles have appeared in a myriad of publications including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Forbes, Time, Austin Chronicle, and Sydney Morning Herald.

Photo: Queensland cattle rancher John Ellrott has refused to lease his property to Big Wind. Credit: ABC News & Ellie Willcox.

Let Them Eat Solar Panels (and Efficiency)

Robert Bryce — Thu, 27 Feb 2025 20:28:38 -0500

In 2013, the World Bank declared it would stop funding coal projects and would only “in rare circumstances” provide financial support for new coal plants. It also said it would “scale up efforts to improve energy efficiency and increase renewable energy.” Rather than support coal projects, the bank said it would “scale up its work helping countries develop national and regional markets for natural gas, the fossil fuel with the lowest carbon intensity.” But two years later, the bank backtracked on natural gas and said it would stop all lending for oil and gas projects “except under exceptional circumstances.”

Since then, the bank, which claims its “role is to reduce poverty by lending money to the governments of its poorer members to improve their economies and to improve the standard of living of their people,” has lost its collective mind.

Rather than lending money to poor countries so they can develop more coal, oil, and natural gas projects — and, in doing so, grow their economies and improve living standards — the bank, which gets the biggest chunk of its funding from the United States, has become one of the world’s biggest carbon colonialists. As Todd Moss explained here on Substack last fall, the World Bank and other international lenders are trying to impose decarbonization policies on some of the world’s poorest countries, a tactic Moss rightly calls “obscene.”

Exhibit A in the World Bank’s parade of obscenities is its decarbonization plan for Guinea-Bissau, which the bank itself says is “one of the world’s poorest and most fragile countries.”

Let’s take a look.

On December 19, the World Bank posted a note on Twitter about its report on Guinea-Bissau, a tiny country with only 2.2 million people on the west coast of Africa.

The bank touted its new “country and climate development report” for Guinea-Bissau, which it says is aiming “to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030.” In the posting on Twitter, the agency explained, “With only 31% of the population having electricity, Guinea-Bissau faces challenges in achieving universal access. Yet, huge potential is ahead!” (Note the exclamation point!)

Telling a poverty-stricken country like Guinea-Bissau to cut its CO₂ emissions is akin to pushing diet pills during a famine. Or maybe it’s like selling lawn sprinklers during a flood. Whatever the analogy, the entire notion is Total Bonkers Crazytown™.

Why should you care about a country whose main export is cashew nuts? Why care about a place where the poverty rate is over 70%? Why care about a country so small that few people could find it on a map?

Maybe you don’t need to care about Guinea-Bissau, but you should care about US funding for the World Bank, an agency that has been hijacked by climate catastrophists. Last November, President Joe Biden announced that the US would contribute $4 billion to the World Bank's International Development Association fund over three years. As Reuters explained, Biden’s pledge was “a record and substantially exceeds the $3.5 billion” the US pledged in 2021.

Before the US gives any more money to the World Bank, it should examine its lending policies and, in particular, its decarbonization plan for Guinea-Bissau.

That report is something to behold. It’s a 78-page demonstration of everything wrong with how elite technocrats think about poverty in developing countries. The report repeats the same message nearly two dozen times: Guinea-Bissau should be using more solar. Or rather, it should be “Accelerating the deployment of solar PV with storage.”

The report notes that Guinea-Bissau’s “offshore territories harbor oil reserves.” Nevertheless, it declares that the country “needs an integrated energy policy that includes a mandate to phase out heavy fuel oil-based generation and sets clear targets and timelines for renewable energy development and energy efficiency.”

Right. The technocrats at the World Bank want the country’s residents to use solar and batteries, and they should be using less energy, not more.

The technocrats want this in a place where 7 out of 10 people don’t even have electricity. They want this in a place where the per-capita GDP is less than $1,000! They want this in a place where, according to the bank, “Wood, charcoal, and agricultural biomass make up about 90% of primary energy consumption.” They want this in a country where the unemployment rate is nearly 26% and the country’s GDP is about $2.1 billion.

For comparison, consider this: the World Bank’s administrative budget is $3.5 billion! Thus, the World Bank, which employs 10,000 people, spends about 50% more every year on salaries, office space, and Cheez-Its than all of the money generated by all of the people of Guinea-Bissau. And yet — and yet — the World Bank is so opposed to hydrocarbons that it thinks Guinea-Bissau should rely on the two-legged stool of renewables and efficiency.

The Guinea-Bissau decarbonization plan is just one of numerous reports the World Bank has produced over the past few years offering the same alt-energy prescription. Here’s one published in 2023 for Côte d'Ivoire, another impoverished African country. In his Substack piece from last October, titled “Ridiculous decarbonization,” Todd Moss wrote about how cabinet ministers from yet another impoverished country, São Tomé & Príncipe, were presenting their decarbonization plans to officials from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. He said the meeting embodied “everything wrong about climate policy toward the poorest countries.” He continued, saying, “Extremely poor, low-emitting countries like São Tomé & Príncipe do not need decarbonization plans. They need growth plans.”

Moss is right.

So, too, is Vijaya Ramachandran of the Breakthrough Institute, who, in 2021, declared that “Pursuing climate ambitions on the backs of the poorest people in the world is not just hypocritical — it is immoral, unjust, and green colonialism at its worst." (Ramachandran was on the Power Hungry Podcast in 2022.)

Now that DOGE and the Trump administration are scrutinizing all federal spending, they should examine the money the US gives to the World Bank and other lenders. The United States should not give money to international entities that oppose the use of hydrocarbons. Instead, it should promote a global agenda that embraces energy realism and energy humanism.

Modern economies aren’t built with solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries. They are built with hydrocarbons. It’s time for the World Bank to accept that hydrocarbons are essential for economic growth and human development. It should return to its mission of reducing poverty and improving living standards. And if the World Bank refuses to embrace a pro-energy, pro-human stance, the US shouldn’t fund it.

This piece first appeared at Robert Bryce Substack.

Photo: courtesy Robert Bryce Substack

Ramaphosa's Incompetent Statecraft

Hügo Krüger — Mon, 02 Dec 2024 19:28:38 -0500

With the recent BRICS conference, President Ramaphosa referred to Vladimir Putin as "our valued ally." While I have defended, and still do defend, South Africa’s non-aligned stance regarding the war in Ukraine, because of the obvious contribution of NATO expansion to the conflict, it appears that Ramaphosa is interpreting non-alignment as being "pro-Russian”. By implication, this suggests that BRICS is by definition "anti-Western."

This position might reflect the ideological leanings of certain senior ANC members, who are always eager to make anti-Western statements without recognizing South Africa’s dependence on Western trade. I can’t help but wonder how Ramaphosa internalizes such rhetoric. A simple glance at South Africa’s foreign trade reveals an undeniable fact: that our trade with Russia is smaller than our trade with Angola.

There is no substantial exchange of goods and services between South Africa and Russia, a country that is, in effect, landlocked and literally situated on the other side of the world. What exactly is there in this relationship that deserves so much value?

South Africa’s most promising students don’t go to Russia to study science or technology, they rather go to Western countries such as Britain, Australia, France, America and the USA. Unlike India, South Africa lacks a significant diaspora with cultural ties to Russia, and unlike China, one can’t justify the realism on the grounds that our economy is reliant on Russian trade. Nor is there a shared energy infrastructure, as exists between Hungary and Germany, or significant linguistic ties, as seen among the former USSR countries.

Given that several ANC leaders were trained in the former USSR, it's understandable that there are emotional historical ties, but this is irrelevant. It overlooks the fact that Russia is no longer the Soviet Union as several Russian experts such as Prof. Steven Cohen have written about. Russia has notably implemented several reforms to distance the country from its Soviet past. A striking fact is that the works of Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s Gulag is mandatory reading in Russian schools and that Russi

Whatever emotional ties to the past may exist, in geopolitics they are often set aside, as a nation must balance its moral values with its strategic interests when choosing its international relations.

Read the rest of this piece at Hügo's Newsletter.

Photo: South Africa's President Ramaphosa speaking at a recent BRICS conference.

From Settler Colonialism to a New Post-Colonial Settlement

Joel Kotkin and Hugo Kruger — Wed, 28 Aug 2024 20:28:58 -0400

In this era of heightened racial and ethnic tension, few academic concepts have enjoyed as much success as “settler colonialism.” Notably articulated by the Australian anthropologist Patrick Wolfe in his article “Settler Colonialism and the Elimination of the Native,” this approach has been used to explain conflicts taking place in Israel-Palestine, Australia, Russia-Ukraine, Latin America, and the African continent, as well as within the Western world.

Settler colonialism is seen as an ongoing process with enduring impacts on indigenous communities and serves as a framework for explaining the complex dynamics of power, domination, and resistance supposedly inherent in settler-colonial societies. Any perceived settler eruption is said to be governed by what Wolfe labels “the logic of elimination,” meaning that settler colonialism seeks to permanently occupy and transform indigenous lands through violent dispossession, forced assimilation, and cultural erasure. As such, narratives of settler colonialism offer no hope of redemption or reconciliation.

Widely taught and embraced on today’s college campuses, and increasingly featured in the media, the settler-colonial concept has vague connections to the original Marxist-Leninist gospel, but is more directly connected to postcolonial movements headed by figures such as Fidel Castro, Hugo Chávez, Mao, Gamal Abdel Nasser, and Kwame Nkrumah, as well as intellectuals like Frantz Fanon, Steve Biko, Robert Sobukwe, Herbert Marcuse, Efraín Morote Best, and Michel Foucault. Less attention is paid, however, to this ideology’s empirical effects and actual history: the most fervent “anticolonial” regimes have generally done little to improve the lives of the oppressed, and often cause their own societies a great deal of harm.

It’s Not All about Racism

The latest version of the settler-colonialist narrative ties imperialism and slavery to the triumph of “white privilege.” In reality, however, colonialism has a long, and diverse, history. Today’s primary promoters of anti‑Western imperialism—China and Russia—are themselves “settler” states, built over centuries through the displacement of indigenous cultural minorities. Even in North America and Africa, well before the conquest of the New World, there were constant wars and incidents of mass enslavement. The early settlers of southern Africa, the Khoisan, for example, have been reduced to just over 1 percent of South Africa’s population, having been displaced through a series of racially diverse migrations and gold rushes before and after the arrival of Europeans. They have faced notable levels of discrimination in South Africa, Namibia, and Botswana, by both the European and Bantu settlers.

We seem to forget that Africans were quite capable of building their own exploitative empires, such as Great Zimbabwe and the Kingdom of Mapungubwe between the eleventh and fifteenth centuries, which conquered and exploited other people, much like their European settler counterparts. Later, South Africa saw the conquests of the Natal by Shaka Zulu—who notably launched the genocidal Mfecane against the Swazi and Sotho tribes.

Genocides and ethnic cleansings are not unique to any tribe or continent. They have occurred throughout precolonial Africa, in primitive Scandinavia, and pre-Columbian America. As Steven Pinker has noted, in his treatise on the history of violence, several ancient gravesites contain bodies that had their skulls cracked open before they died.

The settler school also often chooses to racialize oppression, forgetting that imperial expansion transcends race and faith. Not all settlers, for example, were demonic tools of capitalism; many came as refugees, such as the persecuted Huguenots following the revocation of the Edict of Nantes in Catholic France, or Jewish refugees fleeing Europe during the Nazi era. Others, like the Afrikaner, also were oppressed; they were herded into concentration camps and their language banned during the height of the British Empire.

Read the rest of this piece at American Affairs.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Photo: Landing of Van Riebeeck at the Cape of Good Hope in 1652, painting by Charles Bell, Wikimedia in Public Domain.

African Deep Tech Centres

Nima Sanandaji — Fri, 12 Jul 2024 20:28:58 -0400

While much of the news reporting from Africa relates to conflict and corruption, there is also significant potential for economic and technological progress in the region. Demography is a main driver of human progress, and the Africa population is growing when much of the rest of the world is experiencing shrinking populations. This continent, which is even larger than North America and hosts twice as many countries, has significant regional variations in terms of stability, and the opportunities for economic and technological advancement.

From a historic perspective, the coastal cities of North Africa were for millennia a technologically advanced part of the world. Until modern western capitalism started forming in Italian city states during the Renaissance, the cities and surrounding regions of North Africa were agriculturally and industrially even ahead of much of Europe. During the Roman empire, for example, the provinces in North Africa were some of the most prosperous. Historically, also other parts of Africa, particularly those well-connected to international sea trade, were technologically advanced.

Musa I of Mali, who expanded a trade-focused nation in western Africa during the 14th century, has been suggested to adjusting for inflation having been one of the richest men in history. Part of the Mali wealth was created through mining and metal works, including goldmining. West Africa is not only rich in natural resources, but also has a tradition of mining and working with metals. The tradition of metal working, starting with copper, goes back nearly three thousand years in Africa south of the Sahara. Modern research can identify that the West African metalworks during the Middle Ages, including on imported metals, was based on an indigenous technology which differed from similar techniques in the Middle East. Historically, prosperity did not only come from African nations having metal resources, but also technologically advanced metal works sectors with long historical roots.

Ethiopia and other parts of Eastern Africa have also for long engaged in trade and industry, for millennia closely linked through trade to Europe, the Middle East, and India. Some 600 years ago, for example, Ethiopian travelers to places such as Italy and Portugal were fostering diplomatic relations, trade relations and technological transfer with European nations. This background is important, since history can guide in how the future is likely to unfold.

Today, the global pattern is that Africa is lagging North America, Europe and Asia in technological development, but catching up. African countries understandingly have a desire to climb the value chain, by having more technology in their productions. In order to better understand the patterns of technological progress, the twenty largest African nations in terms of population are compared, in terms of economic freedom, property rights protection and share of high-tech exports of all goods exports. These factors are relevant measures of how free countries are to business, how well investments are protected and how much of the manufacturing exports is focused on technological goods. Additionally, those African countries that host world-leading deep tech centers are pointed out. The deep tech centers mapping is from the Deep Tech Index. The Index, produced by the European Centre for Entrepreneurship and Policy Reform (ECEPR) with support from Nordic Capital, maps the leading deep technology centers, focusing on key, future-shaping technologies.

The level of economic freedom is based on comparing the Index of Economic Freedom scores of the countries to each other. Tanzania, Cote d'Ivoire, Madagaskar, Marocco and Ghana have the highest levels of economic freedom in the. In an international comparison, the Deep Tech Index finds that those countries which have stronger protection for private property, also tend to have a higher share of deep tech companies per million adults. In the comparison of African nations, it is Morocco, South Africa, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania which have the strongest private property rights protections. Angola and Niger are the two countries with highest share of high-tech exports, of all goods exports, followed by Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, and Cote d'Ivoire.

Largest African nations ranked by population size	Share of high-tech of total goods exports, latest 5-years average	Economic Freedom Score (% compared to average for group)	Property rights protection (% compared to average for group)	World-leading deep tech hub
Nigeria	3.8%	102%	83%	Clean Tech; Fintech
Ethiopia	9.6%	92%	80%
Egypt	2.4%	96%	107%	Clean Tech
DR Congo	.5%	92%	76%
Tanzania	2.8%	114%	111%
South Africa	5.4%	107%	128%
Kenya	3.8%	103%	114%	Photonic & Electronic; Robotic & Communication
Uganda	2.7%	98%	105%	Clean Tech
Sudan		65%
Algeria	1.0%	85%	101%
Morocco	4.3%	109%	129%
Angola	22.5%	105%	80%
Ghana	2.6%	107%	122%
Mozambique	2.6%	98%	93%
Madagaskar	0.5%	110%	90%
Cote d'Ivoire	6.1%	112%	97%
Cameroon	3.9%	103%	89%
Niger	14.5%	101%
Mali	5.5%	101%	90%
Burkina Faso	7.8%	100%	103%

African countries which host world-leading deep tech companies, namely Kenya, Egypt, Uganda and Nigeria, tend to be relatively average performers in terms of economic freedom, private property protection and high-tech exports share of goods. Population size and geography can explain this. Countries with higher populations tend to have more of economics of scale needed for technology companies rising to world-leading levels. Smaller African nations that are more open to free enterprise, and even have high levels of high-tech goods in their exports, may instead have more medium-sized rather than world-leading deep tech companies. It is a typical pattern that those countries that are smaller and more linked to sea trade, also tend to have amongst the strongest free market policies, but lack the economics of scale due to more limited populations.

African clean tech innovations are focused on handling the stresses of urban development on the natural environment. World-leading clean tech innovation centers exist in African urban regions such as Lagos, Abuja, Cairo and Kampala. Lagos also is a center for world-leading fintech development. Financial technology is a key for achieving growth in the economy, and can sometimes also play an important role in financing of new firms and firm growth. Nairobi is a world-leading center for development of photonic & electronic technology, as well as for robotic & communications technology.

Kenya has a relatively high level of economic freedom and stronger private protection rights than most other larger African nations. Its capital city Nairobi is where significant advances in deep tech in two important fields of technology is occurring. This allows for a future potential boost of high-tech goods share, which on a national level are lower than the rest of Africa.

Today, as earlier in history, there are several leading nodes in Africa, economically and technologically. The fact that no single country or group of countries is far ahead can lead to a beneficial institutional competition, where different countries compete to be leaders. Many African countries today have strong driving forces, and a clear will, to be ahead of their neighbors in development. This competition is perhaps the most important advantage that Africa, with growing levels of technological sophistication and a growing population, has for future development. In the long term, institutional competition creates the fertile ground for law and order, an expanded education sector, strong universities and growing economic activity. Those African countries that succeed will play a key role in economic development of the coming decades.

Nima Sanandaji, Director, European Centre for Entrepreneurship and Policy Reform (ECEPR)

Chart: courtesy Nima Sanandaji

South Africa's (lack of) Progress in Numbers

Hügo Krüger — Sun, 26 May 2024 20:28:58 -0400

On May 29th, 2024, South Africa will have its 6th democratic election, commemorating 30 years since the end of Apartheid.

This article aims to quantify South Africa's progress from 1994 to 2024. The period will be contrasted, in data, with the Apartheid Government's tenure from 1961 to 1994.

"99"The selection of 1961 is chosen, because it signifies South Africa's transition to a Republic and the cessation of Queen Elizabeth's role as the head of state. It was the peak of the Apartheid Government’s power."99"
"99"1994 is the year that Nelson Mandela became President and the beginning of the ANC government-led democracy."99"

The two periods are respectively 34 and 30 years long.

"99"The data presented is sourced from newspaper articles, official sources, our world in data and elsewhere. No aggregate dataset is ever free of variation, so readers should take that into account

The onset of democratic rule was not (as was predicted) a disaster, but the country certainly didn’t live up to its potential.

Democratization

During the last 30 years South Africa has notably undergone significant changes in government, witnessed an expansion of civil and human rights, and an established constitutional order.

It's worth noting that South Africa's democratization process aligns with a broader global trend, albeit slightly lagging behind Spain and Portugal by only 10 years, and East Germany by only a few years.

Urbanization

"99"Perhaps one of the most unmentioned trends is the coincidence of the collapse of the Apartheid government with South Africa's transition to a majority urban population. "99"Nelson Mandela was released from prison "99"around the same time that South Africa became a majority urban population

Unemployment

The rate of unemployment increased under ANC rule and the economy has been struggling to absorb the growing population. The unemployment rate is mostly from unofficial sources and must therefore be read in conjunction with the formal sector employment rate for which better numbers are available. The latter mirrors the “unofficial” unemployment rates and also indicate that the economy’s capacity to employ workers slowed since 1994 compared to the preceding period.

Economic Growth Trends

"99"In his State of the Nation address on 8 February 2024, "99"President Cyril Ramaphosa"99" stated that the economy is three times larger than it was 30 years ago. However, based on data from Stats SA, the real gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to R2.3 trillion in 2015 prices, and by 2023, it had reached R4.6 trillion."99"

Simple division shows that the economy was actually only two times larger than it was 30 years ago. To put it differently, if the economy had truly grown threefold, the real GDP would have been R6.9 trillion, not R4.6 trillion, which falls short by about R2.3 trillion.

Read the rest of this piece at Hügo's Newsletter.

Photo: Charts courtesy Hügo's Newsletter.