London

Remote Work Could Permit Whitehall Downsizing

Wendell Cox — Tue, 14 Sep 2021 11:46:16 -0400

Alex Chisholm, chief operating officer of the United Kingdom civil service and permanent secretary of the Cabinet Office, said that the new-found ability of officials to vary working patterns was a “huge positive,” according to The Times of London. He told the House of Commons public accounts committee that “letting people work flexibly would also allow the civil service to shrink its footprint on Whitehall, the location of a number of national ministries and other offices of the national government in London. He cited the costly London real estate costs as a consideration favoring downsizing the government’s presence in Westminster (central London).

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

More Londoners Turning to Cars

Wendell Cox — Fri, 16 Apr 2021 16:10:41 -0400

In an article by Edward Thicknesse, City A.M. reports that car use is rising in London, home of one of the high-income world’s best urban transit systems. Excerpts follow:

“New figures from Close Brothers Motor Finance, shared exclusively with City A.M., show that over a fifth of Londoners – 21 per cent – are now more likely to buy a car sooner than they had previously planned.”

“Seán Kemple, managing director of Close Brothers Motor Finance, told City A.M. that Londoners were now turning their back on Tube and bus travel.”

“With people urged to avoid public transport as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the UK has seen a resurgence in private car use over the last 12 months.”

Read the entire article at: Exclusive: Covid-19 drives Londoners behind the wheel sooner than planned.

Boris on Costly High Speed Rail: “Keep Digging” the Hole

Wendell Cox — Mon, 03 Feb 2020 16:30:09 -0500

Referring to HS2, the under-construction high speed rail line from London to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “in a hole the size of HS2, the only thing to do is keep digging." He was replying to Brayton Brent, a 10-year old interviewer on a Skynews kid’s program.

HS2 is under review for possible cancellation and the current thinking is that the Johnson government will decide to go ahead with the project.

When approved in 2012, the project was to cost £33 billion. Costs have nearly tripled to £107 billion, inflation adjusted.

London Murder Rate Exceeds NYC for the First Time

Wendell Cox — Mon, 02 Apr 2018 20:56:35 -0400

The Sunday Times reports an ominous finding for London (the Greater London Authority, as opposed to the larger metropolitan area that includes the suburban development outside the greenbelt), with a murder rate that exceeded that of the city of New York for the first time (in February). The story is summarized in a video by The Evening Standard, which also provides detailed coverage of the Sunday Times report (behind a paywall). London’s murder rate has increased 40 percent in just three years, according to the report. The report notes that the New York murder rate has declined 87 percent since 1990, since the 1990s, an accomplishment for which former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has received considerable credit, including in academic research.

Meanwhile, early reports are that things are getting worse. While there were 15 murders in London in February, the Daily Mail reports that this increased by nearly half to 22 in March.

Source: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/london-murder-rate-overtakes-new-y...

Grenfell External Fire Erupts After Flat Fire Extinguished?

Wendell Cox — Tue, 20 Jun 2017 13:17:39 -0400

The Daily Telegraph reported (June 20) that:

"Crews believed they had put out the fire at the London high-rise and were astonished to see flames rising up the side of the building, new reports have claimed."

"But, soon after, the 24-storey building was consumed by flames in one of Britain's biggest ever tower block fires that left at least 79 people dead."

The paper continued that: " Those reports will add weight to claims that it was the cladding on the exterior of Grenfell Tower that caused the fire to spread so rapidly."

The entire Telegraph article can be read at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/20/grenfell-tower-firefighters-put-fridge-blaze-just-leaving-flats/

The fire's death toll is now at 79. Newgeography.com covered the fire ("The Grenfell Fire: A Litany of Failures?").

The (White) British are Leaving (London)

Wendell Cox — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 10:27:52 -0500

As reported in The Evolving Urban Form: London, last July the Greater London Authority (GLA), located inside the Green Belt, grew strongly from 2001 to 2011, though remains well below its peak estimated population in 1939. Substantial domestic migration from the core area to the exurbs was a major contributor to their growth during between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1).

Obviously, with all that growth and all that domestic out-migration, international migration had to be driving the population growth in the GLA. The British Broadcasting Corportation (BBC) confirms that, reporting that, for the first time "white British" residents of GLA represent a minority of the population. At 45 percent, this population segment is down from 58 percent in 2011.

Whites, however, remain a majority, with more than 1.3 who do not consider themselves British, according to the 2011 census data. The combined white population is nearly 60 percent of the GLA total. The table below provides the ethnic data as reported by the Office for National Statistics.

Greater London Authority: Ethnicity
2011 Census

All categories: Ethnic group	8,173,941	100.0%

White: English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British	3,669,284	44.9%
White: Irish	175,974	2.2%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller	8,196	0.1%
White: Other White	1,033,981	12.6%
Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Black Caribbean	119,425	1.5%
Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Black African	65,479	0.8%
Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Asian	101,500	1.2%
Mixed/multiple ethnic group: Other Mixed	118,875	1.5%
Asian/Asian British: Indian	542,857	6.6%
Asian/Asian British: Pakistani	223,797	2.7%
Asian/Asian British: Bangladeshi	222,127	2.7%
Asian/Asian British: Chinese	124,250	1.5%
Asian/Asian British: Other Asian	398,515	4.9%
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: African	573,931	7.0%
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Caribbean	344,597	4.2%
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Other Black	170,112	2.1%
Other ethnic group: Arab	106,020	1.3%
Other ethnic group: Any other ethnic group	175,021	2.1%

Source: Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom

The Economist on the Costs of London's Green Belt

Wendell Cox — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 00:01:25 -0400

The Economist reminds readers of the economics of housing (or for that matter, oil or any other good or service): constraining the supply of a good or service in demand raises its price. In a 14-page feature on London, The Economist decries the high cost of housing in London. And, for good reason, the 8th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey showed London to have a median multiple (median house price divided by median household income) 6.9 in the fourth quarter of 2011. This figure, which would be more like 3.0 in a normally functioning market, is exceeded by few other major metropolitan areas, though Hong Kong, Vancouver, Sydney are more unaffordable.

The Economist noted that:

... perhaps the biggest constraint on development in London is the Green Belt. Established after the war, it runs (with perforations) all around London, to a depth of up to 50 miles, and bans almost all building on half a million hectares of land around the city.

Not only has this constraint led to higher house prices, but it has resulted in greater urban expansion and imposed greater costs, in time and money on commuters.

... it has pushed it into the greater south-east, thus spoiling the countryside across a bigger area. It has also raised the cost of housing and forced workers to travel farther. Commuting costs in London are now higher than in any other rich-world capital.

One alternative is to relax the Green Belt controls. The Economist points out that allowing development one mile into the Green belt would add one-sixth to the developable area of London. The Economist also notes that "far more than would be needed to make a huge difference to housing availability" and that opening the Green Belt "might not be an environmental disaster."

The Economist calculates that "the average London worker can buy half an average home." Britain would gain if the interests of those with a stake in a poorer middle class and greater poverty were to finally give way to the general welfare.

The Economist: The Great High Speed Train Robbery

Wendell Cox — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 14:57:33 -0400

The Economist magazine has called on the British government to c ancel plans for the HS-2 high-speed rail line that would run from London to Birmingham and Manchester. The Economist said:

...these days politicians across the developed world hope new rapid trains, which barrel along at over 250mph (400kph), can do the same. But high-speed rail rarely delivers the widespread economic benefits its boosters predict. The British government—the latest to be beguiled by this vision of modernity—should think again

The government claims the line will cost £32 billion line, however the international experiences suggests a figure more on the order of £32 and the experience in this corridor itself suggests costs could rise even more (see The High Speed Rail Battle of Britain).

A principal purpose for the line is to bridge the economic gap between the economic dynamo of Southeast England (including London) and the Midlands and North of the country. This does not convince The Economist:

China suspended new projects after a fatal collision of two high-speed trains in July; Brazil delayed plans for a rapid Rio de Janeiro-São Paulo link, after lack of interest from construction firms. Yet governments remain susceptible to the idea that such projects can help to diminish regional inequalities and promote growth.

The Economist doubts this will happen:

In fact, in most developed economies high-speed railways fail to bridge regional divides and sometimes exacerbate them. Better connections strengthen the advantages of a rich city at the network’s hub: firms in wealthy regions can reach a bigger area, harming the prospects of poorer places. Even in Japan, home to the most commercially successful line, Tokyo continues to grow faster than Osaka. New Spanish rail lines have swelled Madrid’s business population to Seville’s loss. The trend in France has been for headquarters to move up the line to Paris and for fewer overnight stays elsewhere.

The Economist reminds the government that:

Britain still has time to ditch this grand infrastructure project—and should. Other countries should also reconsider plans to expand or introduce such lines. A good infrastructure scheme has a long life. But a bad one can derail both the public finances and a country’s development ambitions.

Finally, The Economist says that there is better use for the money.

The £32 billion at its disposal might well yield a higher return if it were spent on less glitzy schemes, such as road improvements and intra-city transport initiatives. If the aim is to regenerate “the north”, the current plan might prove a high-speed route in the wrong direction.

Strikes and Transit Alternatives in London

Wendell Cox — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 17:28:57 -0400

The Wall Street Journal notes that the London Underground (metro or subway) is on strike and that transit riders are having to find alternate ways to get around. This is of course, not good news, and the transit strikes that happen often in places like Paris and periodically in places like Los Angeles and Philadelphia are a serious impediment to transit's growth (along with spending on extravagant projects and excessive and rising operating costs).

But London is actually well prepared for this emergency. Unlike Paris, Chicago and New York (where making transit strikes illegal did not prevent one), London’s buses and underground are organized in a manner that provides riders with an alternative.

The key is competitive tendering (competitive contracting) of bus service. One of the Thatcher government's most successful reforms was its reorganization of transit in London. It began in 1985, when a small part of the world's largest public bus system was put out to competitive bid. London Transport retained control of the schedules, fares, logos and bus liveries, so that the now privately operated services were an integral part of the system. Riders did not know the difference between the public and private services, until a few years later when the privately operated services began achieving better service reliability than the public services.

By 2000, the entire London bus system had been converted to competitive tendering, with multiple contractors providing the service. Costs per mile dropped by 50%, adjusted for inflation, while service was expanded and ridership rose. Regrettably, some of the efficiency gains were lost once Ken Livingstone assumed the mayorality of the new Greater London Council, while Transport for London (the successor to London Transport) failed to pay sufficient attention to retaining economic competitiveness between the contractors. Still, things are far better today than they were 25 years ago.

This competitively tendered bus system makes it possible for underground riders to get to their destinations by bus, albeit somewhat more slowly.

Having an alternative is crucial. I recall that in response to a Southern California Rapid Transit District (SCRTD) bus strike (Note), I asked the Torrance and Gardena bus operations to "open their doors" as they traveled through low-income south central Los Angeles on their way to downtown (regulatory restrictions required them to operate in "closed door more" so as not to compete with the services of the larger Southern California Rapid Transit District). It was not long before one of my fellow Los Angeles County Transportation Commission members complained to Mayor Bradley (who had appointed me), which resulted in my withdrawal of the request. My colleague had been more concerned about the good of already well compensated transit employees to a greater extent than south central Los Angeles residents who relied on the buses for their livelihood (granted, this geographic area was outside the electoral constituency of the member).

It is well to remember the less than sage views of Herbert Morrison, Deputy Prime Minister to Clement Atlee in the United Kingdom in the late 1940s. Morrison, the founder of the publicly operated London Transport opined that conversion of privately operated services to publicly operated services would be more efficient and better serve the public because public employees would be driven by an ethic of public service. While Nobel Laureate James Buchanan and the public choice school of economics put an academic end to such muddled thinking, London Underground's workers are in the process of providing even more tangible evidence.

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Note: SCRTD was the operating predecessor to the current Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Association. The board on which I served, the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission was the policy predecessor.

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Photograph by the Author