transit

Multiple More Jobs Accessible by Automobile Than by Transit

Frontier Centre for Public Policy — Thu, 11 Apr 2024 15:09:28 -0400

A recent University of Toronto paper by Jeff Allen and Steven Farber examines work access as measured in travel time to get to work. The “30-minute job access” is a rounded-up average in all heavily populated regions in Canada.

Data from the paper and key points are in the PDF. View/download the Charticle (PDF).

Toronto Transit Service Cuts Criticized in University Report

Wendell Cox — Mon, 27 Mar 2023 11:34:45 -0400

Just implemented service adjustments will reduce Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) services to nine percent below pre-pandemic levels.

A Toronto Metropolitan University report (2023 TTC Service Changes and Transit Equity in Toronto), while acknowledging TTC’s challenging fiscal situation, notes that “Toronto’s most marginalized neighbourhoods will likely be disproportionately affected by the TTC service cuts.” The report continues: “These neighbourhoods may not generate the highest amounts of public transit trips, but residents in these neighbourhoods may be more dependent on public transit for their everyday needs compared to other parts of the city.” This “will likely make these neighbourhoods more mobility poor, creating additional barriers to the residents’ participation in employment, education, and society in general.”

Moreover, the report finds “At a time when all levels of the government are committing to address affordability and inequality, the proposed TTC service cuts are not justified.”

Note: The TTC principally serves the city (municipality) of Toronto, which accounts for 45% of the Toronto census metropolitan area population.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

SEPTA Halts King of Prussia Rail Project

Wendell Cox — Mon, 20 Mar 2023 12:07:28 -0400

Philadelphia’s transit agency, the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) has paused the King of Prussia rail line that is proposed as a link to the Norristown High Speed Line and centre city. King of Prussia is located in suburban Montgomery County, PA and is hope to the King of Prussia Mall, one of the five largest in the United States.

According to a SEPTA press release dated March 17, “… SEPTA must prioritize essential
infrastructure work and safety and security improvements to maximize the reliability and effectiveness of our aging system.” The press release further noted that “From August 2020 to August 2022, the project estimate increased from $2.08 billion to $2.6 billion. The estimate now stands at $3.02 billion.”

All activities on the King of Prussia project are being halted, and a pending contract for final design has not been executed by SEPTA.

“The Authority will provide details on how funds allocated for KOP Rail will be used
when the proposed capital budget and long-term program is released in April.”

Like other transit agencies around the world, ridership has been severely reduced by the effect of the pandemic, pandemic lockdowns and the increase in remote and hybrid work. In 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, the transit’s work trip market share in the Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD metropolitan area fell by half, from
9.4% to 4.7% in 2021, according to American Community Survey data. At the same
time, the work from home share quadrupled, from 6.0% to 23.6%.

Further, US transit agencies have generally been criticized for large cost overruns on rail projects compared to other nations.

US Work Trip Access in 2021 (Journey to Work Data)

Wendell Cox — Wed, 25 Jan 2023 15:17:23 -0500

The following table provides US work access data for the 56 major metropolitan areas (over 1,000,000 population). A previous article highlighted the huge increase telework access (working from home).

Teleworking tripled from pre-pandemic 2019 to 2021 to 17.9 percent. The 2019 figure had been the highest ever recorded (5.7 percent). At the same time, transit use fell by approximately one-half, to 2.5 percent, the lowest ever recorded.

There was also a record decline in auto use, principally because commuters were telecommuting in much larger numbers.

Photo: Las Vegas Urban Area, with 71% of Nevada’s population, it is the 5th densest major urban area in the United States as of 2020 (following San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Jose, New York and Honolulu. Credit: Stan Shebs, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada via Wikimedia under CC 3.0 License.

Click the image below to open a larger file in a new tab or window

30-Minute Commute Access: Theoretical and Actual

Wendell Cox — Tue, 19 Apr 2022 15:05:53 -0400

For some years, the University of Minnesota’s Accessibility Observatory has produced major metropolitan area job access estimates for the average worker, at various trip lengths and modes. Estimates are provided for all the nation’s 53 major metropolitan areas (over 1,000,000 million), with the exception of Grand Rapids, Rochester and Tucson.

The data indicate auto access to jobs is far greater by car than by transit. This is shown below at the 30-minute job access level, which is slightly more than the average one-way work trip travel time of 28 minutes (about 60% of US workers reached work in 30 minutes), according to the American Community Survey (not counting people who work at home, who have no work trip travel time). At the median, cars can access, on average, 57.7 times as many jobs (5,770% as many jobs) as transit within 30 minutes.

The following table shows auto 30-minute access to jobs in relation to 30-minute access by transit, in terms of auto commuters per transit commuter. The table also indicates actual commuting patterns, express in the actual number of 30-minute auto commuters per 30-minute transit commuter, again from the 2019 American Community Survey. There is a strong correlation between the modeled 30-minute job access and the actual 30 minute commute data (0.686, statistically significant at the 99% level of confidence).

View or download a PDF of the table (link opens in new tab)

Finally, transit ridership has plummeted during the pandemic and has recovered far more slowly than other modes of transport, including driving and air (which are now between 80% and 100% of their pre-pandemic levels as well as Amtrak and transit, which are between 50% and 60% of their previous levels, according to Randal O’Toole. With the future of transit ridership uncertain, especially due to the massive increase in hybrid and remote working and a residual fear of proximity (infection), the car advantage could widen.

Update: Urban Density and COVID-19 Fatalities

Wendell Cox — Wed, 08 Dec 2021 18:14:41 -0500

The latest fatality rates as of December 5, 2021 from COVID-19 are shown in Figure 1. This is derived from data reported by usafacts.org. The data includes all the pandemic period, that began in the first quarter of 2020.

Fatality rates data continue to show an association between higher county urban densities and their fatality rates. Urban density is used as a surrogate for the overcrowding that increases exposure density. The issue is not density per se, however, but consistent with crowding which is often found in dense urban areas.

Death rates remain near or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 1,000 to 10,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties account for 91% of the nation’s population (267 million out of a total population of 328 million). Death rates are higher at densities above 10,000 per square mile and below 1,000 per square mile.

The death rates in counties with higher urban densities have improved materially since our first report (July 9, 2020). The earlier, higher rates were influenced by the pre-lockdown fatality data, with improvements as lockdowns were typical for more than a year. Figure 3 illustrates the fatality rates by urban population density category.

New Toronto to London (ON) Train Ridership Half that of a Bus

Wendell Cox — Tue, 07 Dec 2021 16:32:33 -0500

The Toronto Star reports that the new Toronto to London, Ontario “GO” Transit commuter train is carrying far fewer passengers than the average transit bus. (see: GO’s new London-Toronto train is moving fewer passengers than a half-full TTC bus). During the week of November 15, ticket sales were only 32 per scheduled train.

The service, according to the Star, is operated with trains with six cars each, with a capacity of 162 passengers. This means is operating at three percent of capacity (that assumes all riders travel the entire distance from London to Union Station in downtown Toronto).

According to The Star, the GO trip takes nearly four hours each way between Toronto and London. VIA Rail, Canada, the national passenger rail system operates services between the two terminals in 2:10.

Metrolinx, which operates the GO train system across the Greater Golden Horseshoe, indicates that ridership remains about 75% less than normal, due to the pandemic. Even if the new London service were to attract four times the ridership (which returning to normal would accomplish over the entire network), less than 15% of the capacity would be utilized. This is a patronage level that could be easily handled by a few buses, which would also permit provision of trips throughout the day.

On the assumption that the public purpose of this service is serving people, the least expensive option should be provided --- that which attracts the highest number of passengers for the least cost. It is inconceivable that this could involve six car trains, and not even one-car trains.

This is not intended to criticize Metrolinx or GO trains, since similar decisions have been made by governments and transit operators virtually around the world, favoring trains, regardless of the cost. There are obviously places where rail transit is justified, but regrettably, not in many of the places it has been built in recent decades. The result has been to provide considerably less transit service and fewer rides than would have been the case if more efficient alternatives were adopted --- and alternatives that are time competitive with the car.

The University of Toronto’s Professor Shoshanna Saxe “hit the nail on the head,” noting “It’s very hard to attract people to transit when it’s slower than driving,” The problem not limited to the London to Toronto service. For example, international research found that within the Toronto CMA, cars provide 4.5 times the 30-minute job access as transit, despite the fact that it is hard to find a better transit system in North America.

Employment access should be the principal driver of transit policy, with emphasis on obtaining the largest increases among lower-income households that have less automobile access. That would lead to less poverty, an improved economy and more jobs.

The issue is not cars, trains or buses, it is outcomes for people. Transit’s potential can only be achieved if available resources are committed to maximizing ridership, especially to work, which is the most important trip.

Note: As a matter of interest, Metrolinx made a pre-pandemic-pandemic map of ridership by train line available (April to September 2020).

WSDOT Secretary Consults with Political Advocates on Response to WPC Study, Has No Real Dispute With Our Data

Mariya Frost — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 19:20:23 -0400

In 2019, Washington Policy Center asked national transportation expert Wendell Cox to evaluate transportation planning in the Puget Sound region. He looked at data showing where people choose to live, where they choose to work, and how they choose to travel. Specifically, he addressed the policy question: does our regional transportation plan reflect reality or wishful thinking?

Key Points about the report and WSDOT's drafted response:

A 2019 WPC study by Wendell Cox found that public transit has little potential to serve employment destinations outside of downtown Seattle.
The study emphasized that transportation planning should focus on access to jobs.
WPC asked for feedback from the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) on the study, but never heard back.
Through public disclosure, WPC found WSDOT had drafted a response but never sent an official response.
WSDOT’s complaints are largely around methodology and authorship, without any real dispute with our data.
A thoughtful and data-focused reply should have been compiled and sent, which would have contributed to the public’s understanding of transportation policy and spending.

A brief excerpt follows:

"Lastly, Secretary Millar stoops to ad hominem attacks, stating that Cox is a “proponent of auto-centric development” so it’s not surprising that the study “downplays the positive contributions that transit and other options have on congestion mitigation.” On the contrary, Cox is a demographer and national urban policy expert whose values have been readily published online in an invited European journal essay and on Demographia’s website as follows: “The objective of urban policy should be to achieve widespread affluence and eradicate poverty” and that this “requires transport that maximizes mobility and minimizes travel times."

Read the full Policy Note here (PDF opens in new tab or window).

This article is reprinted with permission from Washington Policy Center.

Mariya Frost is the Director of the Coles Center for Transportation at Washington Policy Center. Mariya has lived in both Eastern and Western Washington, and believes strongly in the freedom of mobility for all Washingtonians. She is on the Board of Directors for the Eastside Transportation Association, a member of the Jim MacIsaac Research Committee, and a member of the Women of Washington civic group. She and her husband live in Tacoma.

More Londoners Turning to Cars

Wendell Cox — Fri, 16 Apr 2021 16:10:41 -0400

In an article by Edward Thicknesse, City A.M. reports that car use is rising in London, home of one of the high-income world’s best urban transit systems. Excerpts follow:

“New figures from Close Brothers Motor Finance, shared exclusively with City A.M., show that over a fifth of Londoners – 21 per cent – are now more likely to buy a car sooner than they had previously planned.”

“Seán Kemple, managing director of Close Brothers Motor Finance, told City A.M. that Londoners were now turning their back on Tube and bus travel.”

“With people urged to avoid public transport as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the UK has seen a resurgence in private car use over the last 12 months.”

Read the entire article at: Exclusive: Covid-19 drives Londoners behind the wheel sooner than planned.

Feudal Future Podcast, with John Russo

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Wed, 28 Oct 2020 22:59:30 -0400

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky interview John Russo, co-author of Steel Town USA and a visiting scholar at Georgetown University. John has spent most of his academic career at Youngstown State University in Ohio, and he has spent much time cataloguing the plight of the middle class and working class in the US.

As the conversation begins, John talks about the political situation in Ohio. While Donald Trump polled well in Ohio in 2016, with the 2020 presidential election right around the corner, John notes that Trump is now in trouble in Ohio. He explains from his observations in Youngstown how this change occurred, specifically citing the development of disillusionment with Trump. John also comments on demographics in Ohio, an article he wrote on Trump’s prospects in the state, Operation Grant, schism within the Republican party, and party polarization.

Next, focus shifts to issues surrounding the election itself. John does not offer a concrete guess as to who will win, but comments that the election is not so much about Trump and Biden as it is about the American people and their future. The election marks a significant generational shift as a new wave of young voters steps up, and John explains how this generation differs from generations that preceded it. He shares about potential conflict in the Democratic party, the idea of a “political parabola,” and realities of fear among voters.

Finally, the conversation turns to thoughts on the future, focusing first on the top three policy initiatives of the prospective Biden administration before turning to the future of capitalism, which John imagines will look more like the system established in China. As the episode moves toward a close, Joel, Marshall, and John talk about issues in the technology sphere, the last chance for the democratic party, labor reform, and more!

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More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

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Learn about John Russo.
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