rural

Despite Surges, Rural Death Rates Remain Far Lower

Wendell Cox — Tue, 27 Oct 2020 11:23:50 -0400

There have been reports of rising Covid-19 infection rates in rural areas and even “surges,” such as here and here.

Many of these reports fail to note the most important statistic of all with respect to rural areas --- that, even with the recent increases and surges, rural Covid death rates remain below the national average. There are 703 counties in the United States that are completely rural (based on 2010 Census Bureau data), with no urban population. As of last Friday (October 24), the Covid death rate in these counties was 0.500 per 100,000 population. This is about 30% below the national rate of 0.676 per 100,000 (Figure 1 and 2). This analysis is described in “Perspective: US Covid-19 Deaths and Urban Population Density.”

All of the other counties in the nation have areas defined by the Census Bureau as urban, ranging from little under one percent to 100 percent.

Urban density is important. Covid infections and deaths are associated with higher urban densities. This is not because population density is a problem in itself. It is rather that in high urban densities it is more difficulty to avoid higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. These areas are often characterized by worrying overcrowding from insufficiently ventilated enclosed spaces, such as elevators, transit, offices and public buildings. Social distancing alone is not enough. According to The New York Times: Small, crowded, enclosed spaces are petri dishes for the coronavirus. An additional problem in higher density residential areas is overcrowded apartments, often necessary because lower income households often cannot afford detached houses with yards in which kids can play. There is an important poverty connection.

The newest data continues to show that Covid fatality rates are much higher in counties with the highest urban densities. Counties with over 10,000 persons per square mile have from just under four to over six times the rural county death rate. The rural counties account for 28% fewer deaths proportionally than their population.

Counties with urban densities of less than 5,000 persons per square mile have a smaller proportion of Covid deaths than their population share. Above 5,000 persons per square mile, Covid deaths are proportionately higher than population shares (Figure 3).

Similar relationships are evident elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom and Japan.

At the same time, however, the higher density counties have made substantial progress in controlling COVID infections and deaths. This is very good news. At least in part, this has been made possible by lockdown strategies that have led to huge decreases in transit ridership, high rise downtowns with largely empty offices and limits on elevator occupancy. The real question will be how long it will take for to return to normal, especially in the densest areas, which have been the hardest by lifestyle interruptions (see: Escape from New York).

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Suicide: Sprawl Not Guilty

Wendell Cox — Fri, 19 Jul 2013 17:28:31 -0400

Atlantic Cities reports on research indicating an association between suicide and lower density, in an article entitled “The Unsettling Link Between Sprawl and Suicide.” Actually, there’s no reason to be unsettled, at least with respect to urban areas and their densities. The conclusions apply to rural areas, not urban areas.

Above the 300 persons per square kilometer, or 780 persons per square mile, the authors found no association. The authors of the study note, “above this threshold … the suicide rate remains fairly constant."

The US Census Bureau standard for urbanization is 1000 people per square mile or more, which is similar to the international standard of 400 persons per square kilometer. Even the suburbs of extremely low-density Atlanta and Charlotte have to reach the 1,000 persons per square mile threshold to be in the urban areas.

This research, while interesting, has nothing whatever to do with the urban form.

A Bump in the Road to Chinese Urbanization?

Wendell Cox — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 12:26:32 -0500

China has been urbanizing at a break-neck pace. Between 1980 and 2010, nearly China's urban areas have added 450 million people, nearly 1.5 times the population of the United States. Nearly one-half (47%) of the nation's population now lives in urban areas and the figure is expected to exceed 60% by 2030, according to United Nations data.

According to The Asia Times, 230 million of these new residents are temporary migrants. They are people who have migrated from rural areas to take jobs in factories or other generally lower paid occupations. Under the nearly 60-year old Chinese residency permit system ("hukou") citizens have either rural or urban residency rights. A principal purpose of this system was to limit the flow of rural residents to the urban areas.

As Deng Xiaoping's reforms took effect in the early 1980s, industrial production and exports skyrocketed and this required rural labor to migrate to the urban areas. Migrants were granted temporary status, but not permanent. It is possible, but difficult to transfer one's hukou from rural to urban. Yet the demand for such transfers has been overwhelming.

Yet, an article in the national newspaper, China Daily could mean a slowdown in the trend. The issue is the cost of living. Reporter Wang Yan notes that, for the first time, there is now a growing demand for transferring hukou residential status from urban to rural. There are currently no routine national procedures for such transfers.

A survey of 120,000 temporary migrant workers in urban areas working by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences research center found that only 25 percent would be interested in trading their rural residency permits for urban residency permits. The survey covered working age adults in 106 prefectures with large urban areas.

The driving factor is economic. As in the United States, where differences in housing affordability are strongly associated with domestic migration trends, costly urban housing in China could be fueling a new attraction for rural areas. The cost of housing has risen substantially in China's urban areas. At the same time, the cost of housing is near-zero in the rural areas. Further, residents of rural areas within prefectures with large urban areas have the hope of selling their land for urban development in the longer run and making a substantial profit. However, this new-found affection for the countryside is likely to be limited to areas relatively close to urban centers, to which rural residents can commute for better paying jobs.

The government has announced plans to reform the hukou residency permit system. According to Zhang Yi, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences research center is a system that "ensures freedom of migration."

The United Nations projections may be right. The stated preferences identified in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences survey may not ultimately reveal themselves in actual behavior. But predictions are no more than predictions.

Picture: Shenzhen: Luxury Housing (foreground) and Migrant Housing (background)

Webinar: The Future of Rural America

Mark Schill — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 15:13:14 -0400

New Geography publisher Delore Zimmerman will host a webinar next week discussing the future of rural america. The webinar is part of the Rural Broadband Initiative organized by Northern Minnesota's Blandin Foundation.

From Blandin:

If you are interested in rural community and economic development trends, this webinar is for you. Delore Zimmerman will provide guidance for rural community leaders about development trends and the steps communities must take to increase their investment attractiveness.

The role that technology plays in increasing economic vitality will be presented both in theory and practice, and Delore will include information about successful regional economic development strategies.

Here's more information and registration for this free webinar.

Woodstock Generation Going Up the Country

Delore Zimmerman — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 13:30:02 -0400

They might not have known it but Canned Heat’s classic Going Up the Country at the now 40 year-old festival was prognostic – at least in terms of where the Woodstock generation would be moving in the 2010s. John Cromartie and Peter Nelson’s recently released USDA report – Baby Boom Migration and Its Impact on Rural America – says that the baby boomers have already shown more affinity for moving to rural and small town destinations than older or younger cohorts. As many boomers end child-rearing duties, enter peak employment earnings and ponder retirement options they are now poised to significantly increase the population of 55-75 year olds in rural and small town America through 2020, with major social and economic implications for their chosen locations.

Between 2010 and 2020 boomers will make more than 200 million residential moves, most being within or between metro regions, where 80 percent of this cohort now reside. However, net migration to core metro counties is projected to decline by 643,000 during the 2010s, a dramatic shift from a population gain of 979,000 during the 90s. In the countryside the population of 55-75 year olds will increase two-thirds, from 8.6 million to 14.2 million between 2000 and 2020.

The big winners of course are those rural places with high levels of natural amenities and affordable housing that are already popular as second-home destinations. For these areas the economic future looks good as a potential influx of spending power and seasoned, footloose talent boosts development prospects.

NGVideo: Reviving Plotlands

AlexLotz — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 22:22:15 -0400

Everybody knows we urgently need to build more homes in Britain, but how, when and where will this happen? WORLDbytes interviewed Ian Abley, an architect and manager of Audacity at the plotlands in Dunton, Essex where from the 1920s East End working class couples built cheap homes themselves. Could we do this now? Ian Abley argues we should collectively break the Town & Country Planning law of 1947 which made buying and building on redundant farmland, like the plotlands, illegal.

More information and related resources are available here.

This video and its description are derived from original content by WORLDbytes.org with the express permission of their authors. To see the original full-length video, visit this page.

What is the answer to the state of Kentucky?

Fri, 20 Feb 2009 10:10:07 -0500

That was the question posed to character actor and West Irvine, Kentucky native, Harry Dean Stanton, in a recent Esquire interview. “There is no answer to the state of Kentucky,” he said.

And so after the battering Kentucky took during the primary elections we continue to get The Beverly Hillbillies treatment by the media. Particularly memorable was CNN’s “interview” with down and out squatters in Clay County lamenting their hard-knock lot in life. Even some of our own natives, like Stanton I presume, see a lost cause.

The history goes back to the coal mining wars with Lyndon Baines Johnson’s 1964 announcement of the War on Poverty. He was photographed on the front porch of a run-down house in Inez, Ky. For decades, that famous photo has demonstrated the failures of the family on the front porch – and how far we have not come in conquering that scourge.

As Inez banker (and former RNC Chairman) Mike Duncan recently put it, “The War on Poverty did not succeed.”

And, then comes Diane Sawyer, this past Friday on 20/20. Ms. Sawyer, a native of Kentucky has always shown a great interest in “us.” She has come to the mountains and coal fields on several occasions – most recently to develop this story. We trust that her intentions are good – we are certainly proud of her and the achievements of the many famed Kentuckians who have gone on to do great work in Kentucky and elsewhere.

Back home, the reviews of her 20/20 segment are mixed. Facebook postings point out that, while sad and heart wrenching, the truth is what it is. Statistics can lie but they must be heeded. And they are heartbreaking – drugs, obesity and dead ends that lead to a general malaise about how any government or private efforts can ever make a difference.

But there are bigger stories to tell. For one thing, we are not alone. What isn’t covered in all the “Richard Florida creative class” media hype is that lots of communities face the same situation as those in Appalachia. Florida contends that our big cities won’t be successful in the future without an infusion of educated, innovative and creative people. I think the examples of decay are far worse in the gleaming cities of New York City, Boston and others. There are Americans left behind in the urban lands of plenty as well.

The other story is that people in Appalachia are working on it.

I prefer to tell this story - from the bottom of a barrel if necessary until someone pays attention. I hope Ms. Sawyer (or someone) will tell the stories of school test scores that are off the charts in rural Kentucky counties like Clay and Johnson or of what is really happening in Inez, Ky., where a group of natives have moved back to their home in order to make a generational impact.

These well-educated, successful people recently gathered and vowed to rewrite the story of the failed War on Poverty. They’re not asking for a handout or even a hand-up. They’ve already recognized that the problems are theirs and have taken ownership for finding the solutions.

There is an emergent sense that it takes more than a “hollow” to raise a child. It takes a lot of people to bring a future to the mountains.

Unlike Mr. Stanton, I believe we can find the answers to change from within ourselves - in Kentucky or anywhere. We have a responsibility to each other, to our children, to the land and to our past.

I hope our media will tell more stories of people that are taking responsibility for their communities. Nothing is more Appalachian, or American, than a colorful tale of toughness and the spirit to try.