Big City Talent Markets Were Getting Hit Pre-Pandemic

Aaron M. Renn — Wed, 16 Dec 2020 17:08:04 -0500

One impact of the coronavirus has been to accelerate some trends that were already present in the marketplace beforehand. One of these has been the accelerating flow of people into new talent magnet communities and the relative stagnation of some of the larger, established coastal cities.

This is evident in the new Talent Attraction Scorecard 2020 from EMSI, which largely draws on data up through 2019. They find states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona having many of the most robust talent attraction markets as ranked based on a basket of measuring including migration, job growth, and new job openings.

Among counties with a population greater than 100,000, Maricopa, AZ (Phoenix) and Clark, NV (Las Vegas) finished at the top. There were four Texas suburban counties in the top 10, and there were 12 counties in Florida in the top 40.

Many of the winners were mid-sized, suburban counties, though some more urban counties like Fulton, GA (Atlanta) have surged in the rankings.

Again, this is based on pre-coronavirus data. It confirms that the performance of America’s largest superstar city markets had fallen off towards the end of the decade. With the economic and demographic fallout from the coronavirus hitting these markets hard, these places look likely to stay at the bottom of the charts for at least the near-term future.

Aaron M. Renn is an opinion-leading urban analyst, consultant, speaker and writer on a mission to help America’s cities and people thrive and find real success in the 21st century. He focuses on urban, economic development and infrastructure policy in the greater American Midwest. He also regularly contributes to and is cited by national and global media outlets, and his work has appeared in many publications, including the The Guardian, The New York Times and The Washington Post.

Making Waves on the Third Coast

Joel Kotkin — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 11:44:23 -0400

If you’re looking for some good news in the U.S. economy, you might want to head to the warm, energy rich Gulf Coast. You wouldn’t be alone in making that move; over the past decade the “Third Coast”—extending from south Texas to the Gulf of Mexico—enjoyed 12% job growth, or about twice the national average.

This is remarkable given that the region was socked with several devastating hurricanes, including Katrina in 2005. New Orleans’ population, for instance, is still well below its pre-Katrina level, although now gaining steadily.

New Orleans also demonstrates the possibilities. Film production is way up, and the city appears to be emerging as a magnet for video game, commercials, and special effects firms.

Some of the biggest advances are further along the periphery from New Orleans, often somewhat closer to Baton Rouge. Nucor is constructing a massive new steel mill in Convent, located in St. James Parish about an hour away from New Orleans. Local chemical and oil refinery firms are also expanding and investing in new equipment.

Yet it’s Houston’s star that is shining brightest. Over the past decade, when the country actually slightly lost jobs, the Houston-Sugarland-Baytown region expanded its employment by over 15%. Since 1990, the number of jobs has risen by 46%, more than twice the national average. Over a period of ten years, the region’s population has soared 26%, the most of any of the country’s largest metro areas, and again better than twice the national norm. Migrants are coming not only from other countries, but from much of the rest of the U.S., particularly the industrial Midwest, Northeast, and California.

Optimism among businesspeople on the Third Coast is infectious, as can be seen in the expanding footprint of the Texas Medical Center, the world’s largest such facility. Much of the money for this amazing complex comes from a similar boom in oil and gas.

If there’s a negative tone anywhere, it’s about politics. Concerns over continued federal obstacles to responsible expansions in oil and gas production are widespread. There’s a real concern that this year’s elections will lead to a slowdown in orders and future expansion. Let’s hope not.

This piece first appeared at the National Chamber Foundation Blog.