millennials

Dissecting Biden vs. Trump with Former RNC Staffer Kevin Shuvalov

New Geography — Wed, 18 Nov 2020 12:15:58 -0500

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by guest Kevin Shuvalov. Kevin served as Regional Political Director for the Republican National Committee, where he worked with state parties and campaigns in his region to grow Republican majorities in the Senate, House, and Governorships. In this role, he helped win Iowa’s electoral votes for President Bush as well as multiple other nationally prominent races, and helped create the successful “72 Hour” turnout program.

Their conversation begins with Joel asking Kevin if he was surprised with the turnout of the election and how the media portrayed the race to be one side or the other. Kevin responded with his concerns and what losing seats could have meant for Texas. Marshall followed the question up with how tech played a role and specifically how text message campaigns played a huge role in the election process. Not just the one-way text message route, but the back and forth communication with voters.

Joel continues and brings up a great point, “What astounds me is that Trump actually did better among young people and better among Hispanics and better, particularly among African American males than anyone expected. And that was particularly marked in Florida, and where you are in Texas, what happened and what does that mean?” Kevin responds and breaks down the Hispanic Latinos in Texas and how their wealth affects their decisions. Kevin also states that nothing is set in stone when it comes to the electorate.

As the episode ends, they speak about the control of communication by people who are overwhelmingly on the opposite side of the republican party and what it can manifest in the upcoming years.

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Feudal Future Podcast — Democratic Prospects & The Plural Generation with Morley Winograd

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Fri, 30 Oct 2020 17:46:51 -0400

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by guest Morley Winograd. Morley is a Senior Fellow at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School’s Center on Communication Leadership and Policy, author, and fellow at democratic think tank NDN. Morley also served as the chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party, and Senior Policy Advisor to Vice President Al Gore.

Their conversation begins with Joel asking Morley what battles democratic leadership may face should Joe Biden win the 2020 election. Morley quips that should democrats win the upcoming election, they will go into the White House with a very broad coalition, and thus spend a lot of time fighting amongst themselves. Michigan has had an interesting and diverse electorate over the years, and Morley spends some time explaining the layout, and how President Trump took a foothold in some regions.

What we’re witnessing with this election, Marshall explains, is the handover to the next generation of leaders in our house and senate. He asks Morley what that change will look like. Morley stresses that millennials are concerned that nothing in government is working anymore. They’re distrustful of markets and companies, and don’t look to the federal government, but rather you’ll find them working on local change. They’re the heart of grassroots movements across the country, and in this election, no one will be able to say they don’t vote as they are lining up in droves to cast their ballots. Once the votes are cast, should Joe Biden win, Marshall asks Morley what happens to the far-right wing of the Republican Party. Morley believes that the uglier elements of Trumpism will go back into the shadows, but it will not go away.

As the episode ends, they discuss the upcoming generation, Gen Z, or as Morley calls them, plurals, and why he thinks they are the great hope for America.

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Feudal Future Podcast — How COVID is Shifting Corporate Location Strategy with Jay Garner

Charlie Stephens — Wed, 16 Sep 2020 12:23:28 -0400

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky welcome Jay Garner. Jay is CEO of Garner Economics as well as the Chair of the Site Selectors Guild. This episode explores the topic of site selection and how companies are choosing sites for their expansions. The group talks about how these types of decisions have been affected by the pandemic. Jay explains to listeners that the Site Selectors Guild are peer-selected location advisors that help facilitate location decisions of companies all over the world.

Joel asks Jay how site selection has changed during the pandemic. Jay explains that there was a pivot - He says, “...what we did pre-pandemic and what companies seem to be doing differently, with respect to different industry sectors - is changing significantly.” Jay explains information found in a survey or their membership that happened in April of 2020. About 49% of corporations surveyed said they were not continuing projects at that time. In June 2020, when the membership was surveyed again, there was an increase of global activity with companies moving forward with their projects. Another survey will be done in September.

Marshall talks about how he and Joel have researched future housing trends. He describes the trend of people moving out of expensive, big cities to more affordable and smaller cities. Marshall asks if Jay has seen a trend in projects in these areas. Jay explains that these were actually trends before the pandemic! Other than the price, another reason for this is that millennials are getting to the age where they want more space. He also says that public safety is very important to people.

The group talks about how remote work is affecting large companies. Jay talks specifically about remote work and productivity, cost, and how it is affecting employees’ creativity. Teamwork and creativity could be negatively affected by remote work. Jay says that long term, he thinks we will get back to working socially (depending on the status of therapeutics and a vaccine). The group talks about the potential changes in people after the pandemic.

Jay explains that most of his comments are his opinions, not necessarily that of the Site Selectors Guild.

Listen on Apple Podcast

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More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

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Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Learn about Jay Garner.

Infinite Suburbia

Alicia Kurimska — Sun, 17 Sep 2017 05:40:34 -0400

The suburbs of the future are almost here. Contrary to mass media's belief, many millennials are choosing to live in the suburbs, especially as they get older. Younger millennials, from 25 to 29 years old, are about a quarter more likely to move from the city to the suburbs as vice versa. Older millennials are more than twice as likely. Millennials are looking for places they can afford a home, which they are more likely to find in suburbia. However, this generation is looking for a new type of landscape, one that is smart, efficient, and sustainable.

Read about what these new suburban developments will look like in Alan Berger's New York Times piece here.

California's Fading Promise: Millennial Prospects in the Golden State

Joel Kotkin — Thu, 11 May 2017 11:30:07 -0400

Homeownership continues to be the most important part of the American dream for millennials, but California's rising house prices continue to force them out of the state.

This video is part of the larger report "California's Fading Promise: Millennial Prospects in the Golden State", conducted by Joel Kotkin and Chapman University researchers, in partnership with the California Association of Realtors.

Fading Promise: Millennial Prospects in the Golden State

Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox — Wed, 03 May 2017 23:04:10 -0400

This is the introduction to a new report published by the Chapman University Center for Demographics and Policy titled, “Fading Promise: Millennial Prospects in the Golden State.” Read the full report (pdf) here.

Along with the report, a new video from Chapman University and the California Association of Realtors talks about the housing crisis in California. Watch it here.

Throughout much of American history there was a common assumption that each generation would do better than the previous one. That assumption is now being undermined. The emerging millennial generation faces unprecedented economic challenges and, according to many predictions, diminished prospects.

These problems are magnified for California’s millennials. Their incomes are not higher than those in key competitive states, but the costs they must absorb, particularly for housing, are the highest in the country. Their prospects for homeownership are increasingly remote, given that the state’s housing prices have risen to 230 percent of the national average.

The long-term implications for California are profound. The lack of housing that can be afforded by middle-income households—particularly to buy—has driven substantial out-migration from the state. California has experienced a net loss in migrants for at least the last 15 years. This includes younger families—those in their late 30s and early 40s—which is the group most likely to leave the state. For every two home buyers who came to the state, five homeowners left, notes the research firm Core Logic.

Over the next decade, as the majority of millennials reach these ages, the long-term implications for employers and communities are profound. Rising house prices and rents are already impacting employers, including in Silicon Valley. High prices can also mean a rapidly aging population, something that is likely to sap the economic potential and innovation in our communities.

Many of California’s problems are self-inflicted, the result of misguided policies that have tended to inflate land prices and drive up the cost of all kinds of housing. Since housing is the largest household expenditure, this pushes up the cost of living.

California still has the landmass and the appeal to power opportunity for the next generation. It is up to us to reverse the course, and restore The California Dream for the next generation.

Read the full report here.

Toronto Area Housing Market Rigged Against Millennials

Wendell Cox — Tue, 25 Oct 2016 12:40:54 -0400

In a Globe and Mail column, Margaret Wente accurately describes Toronto’s housing affordability crisis and its principal cause. The Toronto area’s house prices have escalated strongly relative to incomes since the province enacted its “Places to Grow” urban planning regime. The resulting destruction of the competitive market for new residential has driven prices up, just as oil prices rise when OPEC implements strong supply restrictions.

Wente concluded her article:

“The solution to the affordability crisis isn’t high-density housing and mass transit in the burbs. It’s to give people what they want – by getting the ideologues out of the way and restoring a sensible balance between supply and demand. Can we do that and be environmentally responsible too? Central planners who think we can’t should be required to raise their families in an apartment block in Oshawa and take the bus to work. They’d find a better way soon enough.”

It’s no wonder that international researchers are increasingly pointing to house price escalation as a leading driver of rising inequality. Nor should it be surprising that a new Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report will issue its first “red warning” on Canada’s housing market, principally due to out of control house price escalation in the Vancouver and Toronto metropolitan areas.

Circling the Brain Drain

Rich Murdocco — Fri, 13 Jun 2014 12:56:42 -0400

It seems that Destination LI, “a nonprofit community building and educational organization dedicated to helping people create and sustain vibrant centers” on Long Island, has been quietly busy in recent months.

Recently, the group released a survey, which, to nobody’s surprise, shows that millennials are not exactly thrilled with Long Island’s housing options.

The solution? Those “vibrant” walkable communities that have been pitched so many times before. The survey also touched upon Long Island’s need for jobs that match millennial skillsets and salary expectations, two critical issues that policymakers must address.

In a nutshell, “the survey, conducted on social media web forums between Feb. 27 and March 24, drew 413 respondents.” To solicit responses, the group used sites such as Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Reddit and others. Seventy-five percent of those who participated said that they either “agree” or “strongly agree” that Long Island’s housing options limit their ability to stay, with 58.7 percent saying they currently live with parents or relatives.

For perspective, consider this: According to U.S. Census data from 2010, there were 478,988 millennials in the Nassau-Suffolk region. Destination LI’s survey of 413 represents 0.08 percent of the sample size – far from a representative sample of that segment of population. Given the large gap between population and those surveyed online (which, by surveying standards, is a poor solicitation method), it’s important to take the results for what they are – anecdotal, but still an important commentary. Long Island clearly has issues with providing housing, but we’re going about it the wrong way.

The survey brings to light significant questions concerning Long Island. Is regional housing availability holding millennials back, or is it Long Island’s stagnant economy? The survey infers that walkable apartments keep millennials here, but what about affordable single-family homes? Are apartments the only housing option for this age group? Is more development the answer to our regional woes? Are the survey’s findings legitimate given the methodology?

Finally, the big question remains: Should developers be driving the regional conversation on housing needs?

The answer to any of these questions is up for debate, but the last one should resonate. Have Long Islanders become so apathetic that they now are reliant upon stakeholders to conduct surveys that not only get ample press coverage, but are sure to influence policy decisions on the regional level? Shouldn’t planners be conducting these studies, with their recommendations being based off appropriate methodology and professionalism?

Our policy solutions are only as good as the data that informs them. With land-use, the cost of failure is too expensive and repercussions too severe and far reaching to rely on stakeholder-driven solutions. We all are leaders in that we have the power to collectively shape our community. Let’s take back the reins and give our problems the thoughtful analysis they deserve.

84% of 18-to-34-Year-Olds Want To Own Homes

Wendell Cox — Tue, 22 May 2012 22:42:49 -0400

A survey by TD Bank indicates that 84 percent of people 18 to 34 years old intend to buy homes in the future. This runs counter to thinking that has been expressed by some, indicating that renting would become more popular in the future. Much of the "home ownership is dead or dying” comes from short sighted trend analysis in which home ownership data begins with the start of the housing bubble in the late 1990s. The latest data from the Bureau of the Census indicates that the home ownership rate in the first quarter was 65.4 percent, the lowest rate since 1997. In fact, however, before the housing bubble, homeownership hovered generally at 65 percent or below, after having increased strongly from 44 percent in 1940 to 61 percent in 1960. The increase in homeownership during the bubble was the result of profligate lending policies that were not sustainable. The decline from the artificially high housing bubble peak in no way diminishes the successful expansion of homeownership in the nation during the decades that reason prevailed in home lending.

Understanding the Egyptian Protests: Headwaters of the Arab Spring

Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 14:59:57 -0400

On Tuesday, January 25, 2011, the leaders of the Egyptian protest group, April 6 Youth Movement (A6Y), led hundreds of thousands of protesters chanting, “Bread, Freedom, Human Rights” into Cairo’s Tahrir Square. The events that followed completely surprised the economic elites gathering for the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Few put much stock in the importance of the actions of young people in Egypt until the protests overturned that country’s entrenched power structure in a matter of weeks.

Why were the leaders of the global economy so surprised by the events that have come to be known as the Arab Spring, and why did they feel so threatened by them? Why did the protester’s demands spread so quickly throughout the Arab world after decades of suppression by autocratic regimes?

The answer to these questions lies in an understanding of the complex interaction between technological and generational change, fueled by a hunger for a better future, that continues to be the underlying source of the institutional instability and that will reshape the entire region. In a new Kindle Single, Headwaters of the Arab Spring, NDN fellows Morley Winograd and Mike Hais explain how these intertwined forces are destined to undermine institutions and leaders in every corner of the world.

millennials

Dissecting Biden vs. Trump with Former RNC Staffer Kevin Shuvalov

Related:

Feudal Future Podcast — Democratic Prospects & The Plural Generation with Morley Winograd

Related:

Feudal Future Podcast — How COVID is Shifting Corporate Location Strategy with Jay Garner

Related:

Infinite Suburbia

California's Fading Promise: Millennial Prospects in the Golden State

Fading Promise: Millennial Prospects in the Golden State

Toronto Area Housing Market Rigged Against Millennials

Circling the Brain Drain

84% of 18-to-34-Year-Olds Want To Own Homes

Understanding the Egyptian Protests: Headwaters of the Arab Spring