New York City

New York’s Surging new Leftist Tide is a Chilling Warning to the West

Joel Kotkin — Tue, 24 Jun 2025 12:10:54 -0400

A red anti-Israel activist as next mayor of New York? In the cradle of capitalism and the largest diaspora city in the world? It may still be unlikely but the meteoric rise of New York assemblyman, 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani, tells us much about the potential of the redistributionist Left not only in America but across the West.

Many pundits, both Right and Left, express dismay about the surge of Right-wing populists, not only in America but across much of Europe and, now, under Nigel Farage, in the UK as well. Yet rather than a powerful, inexorable shift to the Right, we could just as likely be at the beginning of a new surging red tide.

To be sure, as long as the Left clings to issues like transgender sports, slavery reparations, racial quotas and the defunding of police support, the Right seems likely to prevail. But in a host of key economic and demographic areas, we could see a shift not to the mild Clinton or Blair centre-Left, but to something far more radical, and openly anti-capitalist.

The reason for this shift lies in economics. Even as neo-liberalism has delivered brilliantly for the elite classes, and the highly educated middle classes, it has never worked well for the aspirations of most middle and working class Westerners. Across the 36 wealthier countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the middle class “looks increasingly like a boat in rocky waters”, according to a report by that organisation.

Critically, home ownership, the ultimate symbol of middle class respectability, is fading out of sight for many. In the United States, the chance of middle-class earners moving up to the top rungs of the earnings ladder has dropped by approximately 20 per cent since the early 1980s, while life expectancy in the US has been declining.

So even as the vast majority of Americans reject the Left’s cultural agenda, they also, by roughly four-to-one, favour higher taxes on the rich and government-imposed reductions on drug prices. Indeed a strong majority of people in 28 countries, according to an Edelman survey, believe capitalism does more harm than good. More than four in five worry about job losses, most particularly from automation. Inequality and general fear of downward mobility naturally lead to a rise in support for expanded government and greater re-distribution of wealth.

Current economic changes, notably artificial intelligence, seem likely to boost the ranks of the downwardly mobile educated classes. In the US, some 40 per cent of recent graduates are underemployed, working in jobs where their college credentials are essentially worthless. In the UK, roughly a third of young people doubt that they will reach their career goals. In the US, close to half of adults under 30 still live with their parents.

Low unemployment numbers hide the growing percentage of young working class people who now remain outside the labour pool entirely. In Europe, up to a fifth of the population under 30 is neither in school or a job, most resoundingly in Italy, the EU’s third largest economy. In the UK, one out of seven aged under 25 is on the economic sidelines, the highest level in a decade.

This younger, economically marginalised new proletariat – sometimes called the precariat – constitutes the base of Mamdani’s drive. His positions resonate here, notably frozen apartment rents, free buses and childcare – all paid by a rise in taxes on the wealthy.

New York may be the most alluring city in America for the wealthy with elite degrees, but it faces very high levels of inequality. Job growth has been weak and concentrated in low wage sectors like hospitality and tourism. And as incomes for most stagnate, housing costs have not done the same, rising to record levels this year.

But rising proletarianisation is not just a New York phenomenon. Radical redistributionism describes the policies of one potential future Democratic presidential candidate, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). AOC, a House representative, is also the person cited as the true face of the Democratic Party in some polling. Ocasio-Cortez, also considering a run to dethrone Charles Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, recently endorsed Mamdani, with whom she shares not only a political base but radical economic, anti-Israel and extreme green views.

The other beacon for the new Left lies in California. Home to the most billionaires as well as the highest levels of poverty in the nation, the Golden State has become a field of dreams for socialist groups like the Democratic Socialists of America. This openly Marxist group now has several seats on the LA City Council and seems on the verge of becoming a dominant force in California’s largest city. Due to its more proletarian population, LA has replaced more prosperous and professional San Francisco as the centre of California economic radicalism.

Similar phenomena can be seen in Europe, where an alliance of Leftist activists and Muslims made Trotskyite Jean-Luc Melenchon a favourite among younger voters. German working class voters have embraced the hard-right AfD, with almost 40 per cent, but also Die Linke, which is thought to have won a quarter of the youth votes in the latest elections, more than the Social Democrats and Greens combined. Others embraced the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which mixes socialism with a strong anti-immigrant twist.

In the end, New York will likely not elect Mamdani, in large part due to fear of crime, economic dislocation, as well as the opposition of the city’s still large Jewish population, roughly one in seven Gothamites. But Mamdani is only in his early 30s, and his rise suggests the potency of a coalition of young people, immigrants, and lower wage workers favourable to the radical redistribution of wealth and stomping out capitalism.

Unless proponents of capitalism awaken to these dangers, and address these concerns, the Left may yet rise again to the shock and consternation of those who so blithely celebrate its current demise.

This piece first appeared at: Telegraph.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Feudal Future Podcast — Breaking Down the NYC Mayor's Race

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Tue, 10 Jun 2025 17:01:44 -0400

The battle for New York City’s future is heating up as former Governor Andrew Cuomo faces off against progressive challenger Zoran Mamdani in what’s shaping up to be an unpredictable mayoral race. With ranked-choice voting, multiple candidates, and current Mayor Eric Adams making a last-minute decision not to run in the Democratic primary, the city’s political landscape has never been more complex.

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Dining Out on Taxpayers in NYC

Tim W. Ferguson — Thu, 27 Jun 2024 09:41:33 -0400

Restaurant sheds have been a lingering point of Covid controversy in New York City, and this item in the free tabloid papers from Schneps Media ought to be reason for further debate. The sheds were allowed on public streets to save the eateries during the indoor restrictions of the pandemic. Many of them remain in place despite commerce returning to normal even in NYC, this despite complaints from neighbors...
see: https://timwferguson.com/2024/06/26/dining-out-on-taxpayers-in-nyc/

New York Urban Area Map

Wendell Cox — Mon, 25 Apr 2022 12:31:26 -0400

A commenter on the article (Comparing Urban Densities: Winnipeg and New York) expressed an interest in seeing the extent of the New York urban area. The main page of the Census Bureau map is posted here (PDF, 9MB). The map is difficult to read, but easier if the zoom function is employed. The New York urban area is defined by a black line, and extends:

South to the southern tip of Long Beach Island, in Ocean County, New Jersey, about 10 miles from the city limits of Atlantic City --- about 85 miles south of Manhattan (“as the crow flies”).
West to within 7 miles of the Pennsylvania border, in Warren County, New Jersey --- about 50 miles west of Manhattan.
North to southern Dutchess County, New York --- about 60 miles of Manhattan)
East to 25 miles west of Montauk, New York (east end of Long Island) --- about 85 miles east of Manhattan.

The entire map is available here and contains 22 maps with more detailed information.

In 2010, the New York urban area covered 3,450 square miles (8,936 square kilometers), with a population of 18.351 million and a population density of 5,319 per square mile (2,054 per square kilometer). Among the large urban areas in the United States, New York was the fourth densest, trailing Los Angeles (6,999 per square mile), San Francisco (6,267 per square mile) and San Jose (5,820 per square mile).

Urban areas are defined by Census Bureau criteria principally using population density of continuously developed urbanization. The 2010 census urban area criteria are here. The 2020 data has not yet been released.

Metropolitan areas are organized around urban areas, and their corresponding “central counties.” The central counties associated with a particular urbanized area or urban cluster are grouped to form a single cluster of central counties for purposes of measuring commuting to and from potentially qualifying outlying counties. Central counties are defined as “those counties that:

Have at least 50 percent of their population in urban areas of at least 10,000 population; or
Have within their boundaries a population of at least 5,000 located in a single urban area of at least 10,000 population.”

Metropolitan areas comprise the central counties and “outlying counties that meet commuting interchange criteria. Urban areas can have small extensions into counties not within the corresponding metropolitan area, such as Warren County, New Jersey and Dutchess County, New York as in the case of the New York urban area (above).

Due to the huge size of the New York urban area, all but one of the 23 metropolitan counties is “central.” Only Pike County, Pennsylvania is an “outlying” county.

There is a misimpression that metropolitan areas are organized around commuting into central business districts, or central cities (municipalities). In fact, the current commuting criteria relates only to central counties --- the 22 in New York metropolitan area, not Manhattan or the city of New York.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Feudal Future Podcast: America Under Biden's New Tax Plan

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Mon, 10 May 2021 11:35:55 -0400

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Hank Adler, Associate Professor of Accounting for Chapman University, and Steven Malanga, City Journal’s senior editor, to discuss Biden's new tax plan.

Hank Adler was in public accounting for thirty-four years, the last twenty as a tax partner at Deloitte & Touche. He joined the faculty of Chapman University in 2003. Mr. Adler has served on several corporate and community boards of directors. His research has been published by The Wall Street Journal, Tax Notes, Prentice Hall and Tax Magazine. His interests include theories of taxation and board governance.

Steven Malanga is the George M. Yeager Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and City Journal’s senior editor. He writes about the intersection of urban economies, business communities, and public policy. Malanga is the author of The New New Left: How American Politics Works Today (2005); The Immigration Solution: A Better Plan than Today’s (2007), coauthored with Heather Mac Donald and Victor Davis Hanson; and Shakedown: The Continuing Conspiracy Against the American Taxpayer (2010).

[ 3:17] High Taxes and California

[ 6:45] The concentration of wealth in California

[16:30] Biden's porposal on capital gains

[29:08] Entrepreneurial growth in America

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Feudal Future Podcast, with John Russo

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Wed, 28 Oct 2020 22:59:30 -0400

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky interview John Russo, co-author of Steel Town USA and a visiting scholar at Georgetown University. John has spent most of his academic career at Youngstown State University in Ohio, and he has spent much time cataloguing the plight of the middle class and working class in the US.

As the conversation begins, John talks about the political situation in Ohio. While Donald Trump polled well in Ohio in 2016, with the 2020 presidential election right around the corner, John notes that Trump is now in trouble in Ohio. He explains from his observations in Youngstown how this change occurred, specifically citing the development of disillusionment with Trump. John also comments on demographics in Ohio, an article he wrote on Trump’s prospects in the state, Operation Grant, schism within the Republican party, and party polarization.

Next, focus shifts to issues surrounding the election itself. John does not offer a concrete guess as to who will win, but comments that the election is not so much about Trump and Biden as it is about the American people and their future. The election marks a significant generational shift as a new wave of young voters steps up, and John explains how this generation differs from generations that preceded it. He shares about potential conflict in the Democratic party, the idea of a “political parabola,” and realities of fear among voters.

Finally, the conversation turns to thoughts on the future, focusing first on the top three policy initiatives of the prospective Biden administration before turning to the future of capitalism, which John imagines will look more like the system established in China. As the episode moves toward a close, Joel, Marshall, and John talk about issues in the technology sphere, the last chance for the democratic party, labor reform, and more!

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Feudal Future Podcast — Making Sense Of Urban Density, Death Rates & Dispersion With Wendell Cox

Charlie Stephens — Fri, 21 Aug 2020 14:57:50 -0400

In this episode of the Feudal Future podcast, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky interview one of their longtime collaborators, Wendell Cox. He is an expert in urban policy, focusing much of his work on demographics and transportation, and he joins Joel and Marshall for a conversation on the COVID-19 pandemic, death rates, and public policy.

The first topic of the conversation is a chart Wendell explains correlating death rates from COVID-19 and urban density rates. Wendell describes the significance of urban density, specifically as it contrasts with county density. Urban density is associated with overcrowding in close spaces, and highlights the need not only for social distancing, but also for good ventilation. The group considers the possible reasons behind a seemingly low death rate in Manhattan, the issue of dense housing, and how various parts of California fare on the chart.

Next, the group considers implications of the issues of density and death represented by Wendell’s chart. They think about possible policy changes to come, and Wendell argues that we need to avoid full lockdown as we move forward in order to avoid bringing more ruin to the economy. Rather than locking down, we ought to specify our problem areas and target them. Further, rather than making the politically correct move of denying the problem of density, we need to look our situation in the face, figure out what’s happening, and take action to address it.

The group talks through what changes may be needed in the days ahead. There are issues to address with regard to building codes and transit systems. There are also major questions to answer about how to move cities - such as the majorly impacted city of New York - toward recovery. Wendell instructs Marshall and Joel in how to think about the example of Asian cities, speaks with them about how various cities in the US are faring now and how they may move forward, and emphasizes the need for cities to consider where people are going.

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New York City Net Domestic Migration Losses Improving

Wendell Cox — Mon, 07 Jul 2014 17:42:41 -0400

A New York Times article by Sam Roberts indicates that

"According to Census Bureau estimates released last week, in the year ending July 1, 2013, the city recorded the third consecutive gain in its non-Hispanic white population.

During that same period, the city gained more people than it lost through migration. Neither of those gains has probably happened since the 1960s, according to demographers."

It is true that net migration, domestic and international, was positive between 2012 and 2013. However, net migration was also positive in the years ended 2012 and 2011, according to Census Bureau data. Among the three recent years, the lowest net migration total was in 2013 (Table).

New York City Net Migration: 2011-2013
Year	Domestic	International	Combined
2011	(55,807)	69,076	13,269
2012	(64,383)	71,752	7,369
2013	(67,629)	73,615	5,986
Total	(187,819)	214,443	26,624
Data from Census Bureau

Further, net domestic migration has continued to be negative. The city has lost a net 187,000 domestic migrants in the first three years of the decade. This is an average of more than 60,000 annually. This is, however, an improvement from the 2000s, when net domestic migration averaged a minus 135,000.

Will New York’s Economy Strangle Itself With Success?

Aaron M. Renn — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 11:50:35 -0400

Big cities have been on a bit of a roll in recent years. But sometimes you can have too much success, as we may be seeing in the case of New York. This week the New York Times reported that finance firms are moving mid-level jobs away from Wall Street to places like Salt Lake City and Charlotte.

There’s a lot going on here. First, a lot this is driven by New York’s success, not its failure. New York is increasingly valuable as a site of high end production. As a result, lower value activities get squeezed out and replaced with higher ones. Despite the exodus of Wall Street jobs, New York City has been booming, and a stat from last year showed that the city was within 60,000 jobs of its all time employment high. This sort of churn is somewhat normal when high value and lower value economic geographies come into contact within the same physical space, as I noted regarding California in “Migration: Geographies in Conflict.”

It might be tempting for city leaders to actually celebrate this, but they shouldn’t. In a city that is desperate for middle class jobs, these are white collar middle class positions that are being lost. New York has stunningly high levels of income inequality – Joel Kotkin has noted it is the same as Namibia’s – and this can’t be making it any better.

Also, is there any precedent for a city being successful and dynamic, over a longer term purely as a production center for ultra-high end activities (with perhaps an associated servant class)? Sure, places like Aspen can do it. Imperial capitals seem to have been able to do something of the sort. Perhaps that’s how New York’s leaders like to see their city, but they are taking an awful risk.

New York is too concentrated in high end activities already, notably the high end of finance, as Ed Glaeser noted in his article “Wall Street Is Not Enough.” This renders it extremely vulnerable to downturns in that sector.

It might seem like exporting finance jobs would be part of that re-balancing, but when they are lower end positions, all you are doing is re-concentrating finance at more elite levels. Because to these types of businesses cost is almost literally no object, they have driven the cost of New York real estate through the roof.

When one industry becomes super-dominant in a neighborhood, Jane Jacobs noted it could lead to a situation she called “the self-destruction of diversity,” where a particular type of user – generally banks – gobble up the land and ultimate sterilize what formerly drew them to the area.

I wrote about this in regard to Chicago in a speculative piece called “Chicago: Corporate Headquarters and the Global City” in which I note a flow of corporate headquarters back into global cities, albeit reconstituted executive headquarters only).

This puts the bigger cities in a tough spot. They have to continue to go up the value chain because smaller cities are rapidly eroding their competitive advantage at lower ends. Ultimately we’ll see where this leads but I don’t think it’s healthy in the long term at all. Figuring this out is just one piece of the rebuilding our overall economy for the 21st century that needs to be accomplished.

Aaron M. Renn is an independent writer on urban affairs based in the Midwest. This piece originally appeared at The Urbanophile

New York City Population Growth Comes Up Short

Wendell Cox — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 17:52:28 -0400

Just released census counts for 2010 show the New York metropolitan area historical core municipality, the city of New York, to have gained in population from 8,009,000 in 2000 to 8,175,000 in 2010, an increase of 2.1 percent. This is the highest census count ever achieved by the city of New York.

Nonetheless, the figure was 245,000 below the expected level of 8,420,000 (based upon 2010 Census Bureau estimates). The higher population estimate had been the result of challenges by the city to Census Bureau intercensal estimates. The city of New York attracted 29 percent of the metropolitan area growth. Approximately 43 percent of the metropolitan area’s population lives in the city.

Overall, the New York metropolitan area grew from 18,323,000 to 18,890,000, an increase of 3.1 percent. The suburbs grew approximately twice as rapidly as the city of New York, at 4.0 percent, and attracted 71 percent of the metropolitan area growth.